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Abstract
Does political dynasty affect local spending in Indonesia? Only a few articles have taken up the political economy issues in Indonesia This study provides empirical analysis that focuses on explaining the effect of the political competition through dynasty winning in the mayoral election to the local spending that focuses on functional-classified expenditure at the district level. Using the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) estimation, this study examines whether the dynasty mayor has different trends in the way to spend local expenditure compared to the non-dynasty mayors. Due to the limited political competition, this study finds the magnitude effect of the dynasty mayor on local spending that used to drive the regional economy. Compared to the non-dynasty mayors on a separate sub-dataset, this study finds different effects of a dynasty between the incumbent and the non-incumbent dynasty mayor on local spending. The incumbent dynasty mayor negatively affects ‘visible’ expenditure’ e.g., grant and social assistance expenditure, social protection expenditure, housing and public amenities expenditure, education expenditure, dan current expenditure. This study also finds negative effects of the political dynasty on local spending from the dynasty mayor elected during the period of simultaneous mayoral election (2015-2018).
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References
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- Aspinall, E., & As’ ad, M. U. (2016). Understanding family politics: Successes and failures of political dynasties in regional Indonesia. South East Asia Research, 24(3), 420-435. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26372044
- Besley, T., Persson, T., & Sturm, D. M. (2010). Political competition, policy and growth: Theory and evidence from the US. Review of Economic Studies, 77(4), 1329–1352. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2010.00606.x
- Cattaneo, M. D., Idrobo, N., & Titiunik, R. (2020). A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Cattaneo, M. D., Jansson, M., & Ma, X. (2018). Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity. Stata Journal, 18(1), 234–261. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x1801800115
- Cattaneo, M. D., Jansson, M., & Ma, X. (2020). Simple local polynomial density estimators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 115(531), 1449-1455. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2019.1635480
- Cattaneo, M. D., Jansson, M., & Ma, X. (2022). lpdensity: Local Polynomial Density Estimation and Inference. Journal of Statistical Software, 101(2), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v101.i02
- Cruz, C., Labonne, J., & Querubín, P. (2020). Social Network Structures and the Politics of Public Goods Provision: Evidence from the Philippines. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 486–501. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000789
- Dulay, D., & Go, L. (2021). When Running for Office Runs in the Family: Horizontal Dynasties, Policy, and Development in the Philippines. Comparative Political Studies, 55(4), 588-627 https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211024292
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- Fitriyah, F. (2020). Partai Politik, Rekrutmen Politik dan Pembentukan Dinasti Politik pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah (Pilkada). Politika: Jurnal Ilmu Politik, 11(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.14710/politika.11.1.2020.1-17
- Garces, L., Jandoc, K., & Lu, M. G. (2021). Political Dynasties and Economic Development: Evidence using Nighttime Light in the Philippines. Philippine Political Science Journal, 41(3), 215-261. https://doi.org/10.1163/2165025X-BJA10010
- George, S. E., & Ponattu, D. (2018). How Do Political Dynasties Affect Economic Development? Theory and Evidence from India. The World Bank.
- Guritno, D. C., Samudro, B. R., & Soesilo, A. M. (2018). Does Political Dynasty Cause Poverty?. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 11(2), 429-446. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v11i2.16062.
- Kenawas, Y. C. (2023). The irony of Indonesia’s democracy: The rise of dynastic politics in the post-Suharto era. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 8(3), 748 764. https://doi.org/10.1177/20578911231195970
- Lewis, B. D. (2020). How do mayors get elected? The causal effects of pre-electoral coalitions on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia. Local Government Studies, 46(3), 394-413. https://doi.org/10.1080/03003930.2019.1627334
- Lewis, B. D., & Hendrawan, A. (2019). The impact of majority coalitions on local government spending, service delivery, and corruption in Indonesia. European Journal of Political Economy, 58, 178-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.11.002
- Lewis, B. D., Nguyen, H. T., & Hendrawan, A. (2020). Political accountability and public service delivery in decentralized Indonesia: Incumbency advantage and the performance of second term mayors. European Journal of Political Economy, 64, 101910. htps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101910
- Liddle, R. W., Mujani, S., & Irvani, D. (2022). Support for Family Politics and Democracy: Evidence from Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Indonesia, 3(2), 47–55. https://doi.org/10.15408/jisi.v3i2.29670
- Maličká, L. (2019). Political Expenditure Cycle at The Municipal Government Level in Slovakia. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 67(2), 503–513. https://doi.org/10.11118/Actaun201967020503
- Rehman, F. U., Ahmad, N., & Nasir, M. (2022). Political Dynasties and Local Economic Development in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 61(3), 415-443. https://doi.org/10.30541/v61i3pp.415-444
- Rezki, J. F. (2022). Political Competition and Local Government Performance: Evidence from Indonesia. Economic of Government, 23(1), 83–114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-022-00272-3
- Rowley, C. K. (1997). Donald Wittman’s “The Myth of Democratic Failure” [Review of The Myth of Democratic Failure, by D. Wittman]. Public Choice, 92(1/2), 15–26. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30024239
- Rusnaedy, Z., Fatma, F., & Haris, A. (2021). Political Dynasty and Single Candidate in Indonesian Local Elections: Where Are The Parties?. Journal of Governance and Local Politics (JGLP), 3(2), 124-136. https://doi.org/10.47650/jglp.v3i2.297
- Sari, V. K., & Prastyani, D. (2021). The Impact of the Institution on Economic Growth: An Evidence from ASEAN. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 19(1), 17–26. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v19i1.12793
- Setyaningrum, D., & Saragih, H. A. (2019). Political dynasties and the moderating role of good public governance. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(2), 135-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v8i2.11636.
- Sjahrir, B. S., Kis-katos, K., & Schulze, G. G. (2013). Political budget cycles in Indonesia at the district level. Economics Letters, 120(2), 342–345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.05.007
- Skoufias, E., Narayan, A., Dasgupta, B., & Kaiser, K. (2014). Electoral Accountability and Local Government Spending in Indonesia. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (6782). https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6782
- Solihah, R. (2016). Politik Transaksional dalam Pilkada Serentak dan Implikasinya bagi Pemerintahan Daerah di Indonesia. The POLITICS: Jurnal Magister Ilmu Politik Universitas Hasanuddin, 2(1), 97-109. https://doi.org/10.31947/politics.v2i1.1659
- Susanti, M. H. (2017). Dinasti Politik dalam Pilkada di Indonesia. Journal of Government and Civil Society, 1(2), 111-119. http://dx.doi.org/10.31000/jgcs.v1i2.440
- Tusalem, R. F., & Pe‐Aguirre, J. J. (2013). The Effect of Political Dynasties on Effective Democratic Governance: Evidence From the P hilippines. Asian Politics & Policy, 5(3), 359-386. https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.12037
- Yadav, V. (2020). Political families and support for democracy in Pakistan. Asian Survey, 60(6), 1044-1071. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2020.60.6.1044
References
Ali, A. (2016). Do political dynasties hinder development? Evidence from a natural disaster. Working Paper, (S-89207-PAK-1). International Growth Center, December. https://www.theigc.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Ali-2016-Working-paper.pdf
Aspinall, E., & As’ ad, M. U. (2016). Understanding family politics: Successes and failures of political dynasties in regional Indonesia. South East Asia Research, 24(3), 420-435. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26372044
Besley, T., Persson, T., & Sturm, D. M. (2010). Political competition, policy and growth: Theory and evidence from the US. Review of Economic Studies, 77(4), 1329–1352. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2010.00606.x
Cattaneo, M. D., Idrobo, N., & Titiunik, R. (2020). A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Cattaneo, M. D., Jansson, M., & Ma, X. (2018). Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity. Stata Journal, 18(1), 234–261. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x1801800115
Cattaneo, M. D., Jansson, M., & Ma, X. (2020). Simple local polynomial density estimators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 115(531), 1449-1455. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2019.1635480
Cattaneo, M. D., Jansson, M., & Ma, X. (2022). lpdensity: Local Polynomial Density Estimation and Inference. Journal of Statistical Software, 101(2), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v101.i02
Cruz, C., Labonne, J., & Querubín, P. (2020). Social Network Structures and the Politics of Public Goods Provision: Evidence from the Philippines. American Political Science Review, 114(2), 486–501. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055419000789
Dulay, D., & Go, L. (2021). When Running for Office Runs in the Family: Horizontal Dynasties, Policy, and Development in the Philippines. Comparative Political Studies, 55(4), 588-627 https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211024292
Fadhillah, D. N., Ramadhan, F., & Dewa, T. T. (2020). Riset Nagara Institute: Dinasti Politik Dalam Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Tahun 2020. Nagara Institute.
Fitriyah, F. (2020). Partai Politik, Rekrutmen Politik dan Pembentukan Dinasti Politik pada Pemilihan Kepala Daerah (Pilkada). Politika: Jurnal Ilmu Politik, 11(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.14710/politika.11.1.2020.1-17
Garces, L., Jandoc, K., & Lu, M. G. (2021). Political Dynasties and Economic Development: Evidence using Nighttime Light in the Philippines. Philippine Political Science Journal, 41(3), 215-261. https://doi.org/10.1163/2165025X-BJA10010
George, S. E., & Ponattu, D. (2018). How Do Political Dynasties Affect Economic Development? Theory and Evidence from India. The World Bank.
Guritno, D. C., Samudro, B. R., & Soesilo, A. M. (2018). Does Political Dynasty Cause Poverty?. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 11(2), 429-446. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v11i2.16062.
Kenawas, Y. C. (2023). The irony of Indonesia’s democracy: The rise of dynastic politics in the post-Suharto era. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 8(3), 748 764. https://doi.org/10.1177/20578911231195970
Lewis, B. D. (2020). How do mayors get elected? The causal effects of pre-electoral coalitions on mayoral election outcomes in Indonesia. Local Government Studies, 46(3), 394-413. https://doi.org/10.1080/03003930.2019.1627334
Lewis, B. D., & Hendrawan, A. (2019). The impact of majority coalitions on local government spending, service delivery, and corruption in Indonesia. European Journal of Political Economy, 58, 178-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2018.11.002
Lewis, B. D., Nguyen, H. T., & Hendrawan, A. (2020). Political accountability and public service delivery in decentralized Indonesia: Incumbency advantage and the performance of second term mayors. European Journal of Political Economy, 64, 101910. htps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101910
Liddle, R. W., Mujani, S., & Irvani, D. (2022). Support for Family Politics and Democracy: Evidence from Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Indonesia, 3(2), 47–55. https://doi.org/10.15408/jisi.v3i2.29670
Maličká, L. (2019). Political Expenditure Cycle at The Municipal Government Level in Slovakia. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 67(2), 503–513. https://doi.org/10.11118/Actaun201967020503
Rehman, F. U., Ahmad, N., & Nasir, M. (2022). Political Dynasties and Local Economic Development in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 61(3), 415-443. https://doi.org/10.30541/v61i3pp.415-444
Rezki, J. F. (2022). Political Competition and Local Government Performance: Evidence from Indonesia. Economic of Government, 23(1), 83–114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10101-022-00272-3
Rowley, C. K. (1997). Donald Wittman’s “The Myth of Democratic Failure” [Review of The Myth of Democratic Failure, by D. Wittman]. Public Choice, 92(1/2), 15–26. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30024239
Rusnaedy, Z., Fatma, F., & Haris, A. (2021). Political Dynasty and Single Candidate in Indonesian Local Elections: Where Are The Parties?. Journal of Governance and Local Politics (JGLP), 3(2), 124-136. https://doi.org/10.47650/jglp.v3i2.297
Sari, V. K., & Prastyani, D. (2021). The Impact of the Institution on Economic Growth: An Evidence from ASEAN. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 19(1), 17–26. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v19i1.12793
Setyaningrum, D., & Saragih, H. A. (2019). Political dynasties and the moderating role of good public governance. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(2), 135-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v8i2.11636.
Sjahrir, B. S., Kis-katos, K., & Schulze, G. G. (2013). Political budget cycles in Indonesia at the district level. Economics Letters, 120(2), 342–345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.05.007
Skoufias, E., Narayan, A., Dasgupta, B., & Kaiser, K. (2014). Electoral Accountability and Local Government Spending in Indonesia. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (6782). https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6782
Solihah, R. (2016). Politik Transaksional dalam Pilkada Serentak dan Implikasinya bagi Pemerintahan Daerah di Indonesia. The POLITICS: Jurnal Magister Ilmu Politik Universitas Hasanuddin, 2(1), 97-109. https://doi.org/10.31947/politics.v2i1.1659
Susanti, M. H. (2017). Dinasti Politik dalam Pilkada di Indonesia. Journal of Government and Civil Society, 1(2), 111-119. http://dx.doi.org/10.31000/jgcs.v1i2.440
Tusalem, R. F., & Pe‐Aguirre, J. J. (2013). The Effect of Political Dynasties on Effective Democratic Governance: Evidence From the P hilippines. Asian Politics & Policy, 5(3), 359-386. https://doi.org/10.1111/aspp.12037
Yadav, V. (2020). Political families and support for democracy in Pakistan. Asian Survey, 60(6), 1044-1071. https://doi.org/10.1525/AS.2020.60.6.1044