Main Article Content

Abstract

One of the indicator that measures the ability of a country is output , therefore, to increase and  to stabilize the output for countries that have a mixed system, which  is the government plays an important role in  economy . Government has a role to make policy called macroeconomic policy , macroeconomic policy is divided into two: monetary policy and fiscal policy . Nowadays there are differences opinion between the monetarists and the fiscalist wherein each theorists believe that the policies  they believe  is more effective in increasing output. The purpose of this study is to see which policy is more effective in  Indonesia with St.Louis Equation applicatioan. Data used is the money supply ( M2 ) as a tool of monetary policy , government spending ( G ) as a tool of fiscal policy , and the Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) as a measure of output . The analytical method used is using ordinary least square method and produce a good estimation results with the classical assumption . The result shows that the monetary and fiscal policy are significant and positive affect output , the effect of fiscal policy is more effective in the long term in Indonesia. Model estimation does not contravene the classic assumption except autocorrelation and can be overcome by transforming the model by using the scheme AR ( 1 ) .

Keywords : Macroeconomic Policy, M2, G, Output, St .Louis Equation

Article Details

How to Cite
Yunisvita, Y. (2013). INSTRUMEN KEBIJAKAN MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI OUTPUT: SUATU ANALISIS APLIKASI ST. LOUIS EQUATION DI INDONESIA. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 11(2), 111–128. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v11i2.4919

References

  1. Ahmed, Ehsan and Johannes, James M. 1984. "St. Louis Equation Restrictions and Criticisms Revisited: Note”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Vol. 16 No. 4. pp 514-515.
  2. Ali, F Darrat. 1984. " The Dominant Influence of Fiscal Actions in Developing Countries”. Eastern Economic Journal Vol. 10 No. 3.
  3. Andersen, Leonall C and Carlson, Keith M. 1970. :A Moneterist Model for Economic Stabilization”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. Vol. 52 No 4. pp 7-25.
  4. Andersen, Leonall C and Jordan Jerry. 1968. "Monetary and Fiscal Action: A Test of Their Importance in Income Stabilization”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. November. pp 11-24.
  5. Auerbach, Alan J, et.al. 2010. "Measuring The Output Responses to Fiscal Policy”. NBER Working Paper No. 16311.
  6. Batten, Dallas S and Hafer, Rik W. 1983. "The Relative Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Actions on Economic Activity: A Cross-Country Comparison”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. Januari. pp 5-12.
  7. Batten, Dallas S and Thornton, Daniel L. 1983. "Polynomial Distributed Lag and The Estimation of St. Louis Equation”. Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis Review. April.
  8. Belliveau, Stefan. 2011. "A St. Louis Equation to reassess The Influence of Macroeconomic-Policy Instrument”. Munich Personal RePec Archiv Paper. No. 28771.
  9. Brunner, Karl. 1972. "Friedman's Monetary Theory”. The Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 80 No. 5.
  10. Carlson, Keith M. 1975. "The St. Louis Equation and Monthly Data”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. Vol. 57. pp 14-17.
  11. Carlson, Keith M. 1978. " Does The St. Louis Equation Now Believe in Fiscal Policy?”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. Vol. 60. pp 13-19.
  12. Corriea, Isabel. 2008. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Equivalence”. Journal of Political Economy, 2008, vol. 116, No. 1.
  13. De Leeuw, Frank and Kalch Brenner, John. 1969. " Monetary and Fiscal Action: A Test of Their Relative Importance in Economic Stabilization-Comment'. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. Vol. 51. pp 6-11.
  14. Dikmen, Nedim. 2006. "Nominal GSUH ve Politika Tercihi: St. Louis Model Uygulamasi:. Ataturk University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences. Vol. 20 No. 2. pp. 87-105.
  15. Friedman, Benjamin M. 1977. "Even The St. Louis Model Now believes in Fiscal Policy: Note”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Vol. 9 No. 2.
  16. Friedman, Milton. 1968. "The Role of Monetary Policy”. The American
  17. Economic Review. Vol. LVIII March No.1
  18. Furceri, David and Mourougane, Annabelle. 2010. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: A DSGE Analysis”. Economics Departement Working Paper No. 770.
  19. Gujarati, Damodar N. 2004. "Basic Econometrics” The Mc Graw Hill Company. Fourth Edition.
  20. Hafer, R.W. 1982. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in The St. Louis Equation”. Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis Review. January.
  21. Hall, Robert E. 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If The Government Buys More Output?”. NBER Working Paper No. 15496.
  22. Jayaraman, T.K. 2001. " Efficacy of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in The South Pacific Island Countries: Some Empirical Evidence”. The Indian Economic Journal Vol. 49 No. 1.
  23. Jordan, Jerry L. 1986. " The Andersen_Jordan Approach After Nearly 20 Years”. Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis Review. October.
  24. Keran, Michael W. 1970. "Monetary and Fiscal Influences on Economic Activity: The Foreign Experience”. Federal Reserve Bank Of St. Louis Review. February.
  25. King, Robert G and Wolman, Alexander L. " 1996. Inflation Targetting in a St. Louis Model of The 21st Century”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. Vol. 78. No. 3. pp 83-107.
  26. Mankiw, N Gregory. 2006. Makroekonomi. Penerbit Erlangga. Jakarta.
  27. Mohammad, Sulaiman D, et.al. 2009. "An Empirical Investigation Between Money Supply, Government Expenditure, Output & Prices: The Pakistan”. European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciencis. Vol. 17.
  28. Nachrowi, D Nachrowi dan Usman, hardius. 2006. "Pendekatan Populer dan Praktis Ekonometrika Untuk Analisis Ekonomi dan Keuangan”. LPFE UI.
  29. Nelson, Edward. 2012. " The Correlation Between Money and Output in The United Kingdom: Resolution of A Puzzle”. Finance and Economics Discussion Paper.
  30. Raj, Baldev and Siklos, Pierre L. 1986. "The Role of Fiscal Policy in The St. Louis Model: An Evaluation and Some New Evidence”. Journal of Applied Econometrics. Vol. 1 No. 3, pp 287-294.
  31. Romer, David. 2006. "Advanced Macroeconomics”.The Mc Graw Hill Company. Second Edition.
  32. Saqib, Najam US and Yasmin, Attiya. 1987. " Some Econometric Evidence on The Relative Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Pakistan”. The Pakistan Development Review Vol. XXVI No. 4.
  33. Seaks, Terry G and Allen Stuart D. 1980. The St. Louis Equation: A Decade Later”. Southern Economic Journal Vol. 46 No. 3.
  34. Surjaningsih, Ndari, et.al. 2012. "Dampak Kebijakan Fiskal Terhadap Output dan Inflasi”. Bulletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan. April.
  35. Tesfay, Teweldebrehan. 2010. "Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Vector Autoregression Approach”. Tesis. Unpublished.
  36. Topcu, Mert and Ayhan Kuloglu. 2012. " Total Spending Equation of St. Louis Model: A Causality Analysis for Turkish Economy”. Chinese Business
  37. Review, April 2012, Vol. 11, No. 4, 368-376.
  38. Woodford, Michael. 2010. "Simple Analytics of Government Expenditure Multiplier”. NBER Working Paper No. 15714.