Main Article Content
Abstract
The Indonesia-Turkey Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IT-CEPA) is not solely about a trade agreement between the two countries but is a partnership and collaboration so that the people of the two countries can benefit from bilateral cooperation. This study aims to investigate the impact of IT-CEPA, foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation, natural resource rents, and government effectiveness on Indonesian exports to Turkey. The approach in this study applies a linear regression model from 2000-2020 sourced from the World Bank and The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). The findings of this study indicate that foreign direct investment and government effectiveness have a positive sign and have a significant effect on Indonesian exports to Turkey. Meanwhile, IT-CEPA has a negative and significant sign on Indonesian exports to Turkey. However, inflation and natural resource rents do not have a significant effect on Indonesia's exports to Turkey. The implication of this study is that policy makers must pay attention to governance related to the implementation of economic partnership agreements between Indonesia and trading partner countries, especially in increasing Indonesia's exports to trading partner countries.
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References
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- Agung, A. S., Ishak, Z., Asngari, I., & Bashir, A. (2019). The effect of ASEAN-Korea free trade agreement (AKFTA) on Indonesia trade: A gravity model approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 17(1), 1-7.
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- Anggraeni, P., Daniels, P., & Davey, P. (2017). The Contribution of Natural Resources on Economic Welfare in Indonesia. Jurnal Perencanaan Pembangunan: The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 1(3), 210–223. https://doi.org/10.36574/jpp.v1i3.20
- Ardiyanti, S. T. (2015). Dampak Perjanjian Perdagangan Indonesia - Jepang (Ijepa) Terhadap Kinerja Perdagangan Bilateral. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 9(2), 129–151. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v9i2.5
- Argentiero, A., Cerqueti, R., & Sabatini, F. (2021). Does social capital explain the Solow residual? A DSGE approach. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 58, 35–53. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.04.008
- Astriyany, A., & Takahashi, S. (2021). Trade Liberalization, Foreign Direct Investment Liberalization, and Wage Inequality in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik, 12(1), 1–13.
- Avivi, M. S. Y. (2020). Kepentingan Indonesia dalam kerja sama Bilateral dengan Jepang Studi KASUS: Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA). Paradigma POLISTAAT: Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, 3(1), 49–61.
- Bappenas RI. (2021). Perkembangan Ekonomi Indonesia dan Dunia. Jakarta: Bappenas.
- Benny, J. (2013). Ekspor Dan Impor Pengaruhnya Terhadap Posisi Cadangan Devisa di Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 1(4), 1406–1415.
- Cahyaningtyas, D. P., & Aminata, J. (2020). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Perdagangan Indonesia Dengan Negara-Negara Anggota APEC. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 3(3), 219–233.
- De Groot, H. L. F., Linders, G.-J., Rietveld, P., & Subramanian, U. (2004). The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns. KYKLOS: International Review for Social Science, 57(1), 103–123. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0023-5962.2004.00245.x
- Dritsakis, N. 2004. A Causal Relationship between Inflation and Productivity: An Empirical Approach for Romania. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 1(2), 121–128. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2004.121.128
- Haq, G. (2012). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Exports – A Case Study of Pakistan. Sarhad University of Science and Information Technology, Pakistan: University Town Peshawar
- Ilmas, N., Amelia, M., & Risandi, R. (2022). Analysis of the Effect of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Exports in 5-Year Asean Countries (Years 2010–2020). Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 2(1), 121–132. https://doi.org/10.25105/jet.v2i1.13561
- Ingot, S. R., & Hastjarjo, R. M. (2017). Analisis Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan Barang pada Perundingan Indonesia–EU CEPA terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(2), 123-142. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v11i2.223
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- Krugman, P.R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M.J. (2015). International Economics: Theory and Policy, (8th edition). London: Pearson.
- Mahadiansar, M., Setiawan, R., Darmawan, E., & Kurnianingsih, F. (2021). Realitas Perkembangan Investasi Asing Langsung di Indonesia Tahun 2019. Matra Pembaruan, 5(1), 65–75. https://doi.org/10.21787/mp.5.1.2021.65-75
- Mukhtarov, S., Alalawneh, M. M., Ibadov, E., & Huseynli, A. (2019). The impact of foreign direct investment on exports in Jordan: An empirical analysis. Journal of International Studies, 12(3), 38–47. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-3/4
- Statista Research Department. (2022). Natural resources in Indonesia - Statistics & Facts. Report series in Statista Research Department
- Nairobi, N., & Respitasari, R. (2021). Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in the Local Region. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 19(1), 51–60. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v19i1.13826
- Narayan, Paresh and Smyth, Russell. (2011). The Effect of Inflation and Real Wages on Productivity: New Evidence from a Panel of G7 Countries. Applied Economics, 41(1), 1285– 1291. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701537810
- Njong, A.M. & Tchakount’e, R. (2011). Investigating the effects of foreign direct investment on export growth in Cameroon. Faculty of Economics and Management, Cameroon: University of Dschang.
- Pontes, J. P., & Pires, A. J. G. (2021). A geographical theory of (De)industrialization. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59, 567-574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.10.010
- Purusa, N. A., & Istiqomah, N. (2018). Impact of FDI, COP, and Inflation to Export in Five ASEAN Countries. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 19(1), 94. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v19i1.5832
- Pujiati, R., Firdaus, M., Adhi, A. K., & Brummer, B. (2014). The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements to The Commodity Trade Flows (Case Study: International Palm Oil Trade). Forum Agribisnis: Agribusiness Forum, 4(2), 193-206. https://doi.org/10.29244/fagb.4.2.193-206
- Rusmin, J. H., Suryadi, A., & Abdullah, N. (2021). Analisis Proses Perundingan Kerja Sama IA-CEPA (Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) Tahun 2013-2018. Hasanuddin Journal of International Affairs, 1(2). 134-153.
- Saimul, & Darmawan, A. (2020a). Trade Openness Effect on Provincial Economic Growth in Indonesia. WIGA Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(2), 87–100. https://doi.org/10.30741/wiga.v10i2.553
- Saimul, & Darmawan, A. (2020b). Understanding Causality Relation among FDI, Foreign Trade and Economic Growth. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 9(4), 414–426. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v9i4.39044
- Selim, N., Reci, K. & Sadiku, L. (2016). The impact of FDI on the export performance: Empirical evidence for Western Balkan countries. ILIRIA International Review, 1(1), 57-66. https://doi.org/10.21113/iir.v6i1.235
- Setyastuti, R., Adiningsih, S., & Widodo, T. (2018). The Role of Governance Quality in Increasing Intra-ASEAN Trade. (MPRA Paper No. 85258).
- Sinn, H-W. (2014). Austerity, Growth, and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone's Unresolved Competitiveness Problem. The World Economy 37(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12130
- Sonny, S. (2020). Indonesia di Tengah Himpitan Perang Dagang Amerika Serikat dan China. Jurnal Renaissance, 5(1), 617-623. https://doi.org/10.53878/jr.v5i1.114
- Taufiqqurrachman, F., & Handoyo, R. D. (2021). Analisis Dampak IC-CEPA terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 15(1), 27–50. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i1.439
- Wang, Y. (2020). Causes of U.S.-China trade imbalances: a review. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 13(1), 37-44. https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2020-0003
- Wibowo, D. (2015). Pengaruh Pendapatan Per Kapita, Economic Growth Rate, Economic Structure, dan Tax Rate Terhadap Tax Ratio Pada Negara-Negara Oecd Dan Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Jember, 11(1), 45-61. https://doi.org/10.19184/jauj.v11i1.1260
- World Trade Organization. (2012). Trade in Natural Resources. WTO Public Forum 2011, 73–100. https://doi.org/10.30875/4e4df748-en
- World Trade Organization. (2021). Economic Resilience and Trade. Jenewa: World Trade Organization.
- Wuri, J. (2018). Fluktuasi Kurs Valuta Asing Di Beberapa Negara Asia Tenggara. EXERO: Journal of Research in Business and Economics, 1(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.24071/exero.2018.010101
- Yuliani, F., Siregar, H., Widyastutik, W., & Rifin, A. (2019). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Spillover, Technology and Firm Size on the Productivity of Domestic Firm in Food Industry. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 9(3), 287–296. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.7905
- Zulfira, R. D. (2019). Dampak Hubungan Bilateral Indonesia Dengan Jepang Sebelum Dan Sesudah Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA). Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 2(1), 124–134. https://doi.org/10.33005/jdep.v2i1.83
References
Achandi, E. L. (2011). Effect of foreign direct investments on export performance in Uganda. Uganda: Makerere University
Agung, A. S., Ishak, Z., Asngari, I., & Bashir, A. (2019). The effect of ASEAN-Korea free trade agreement (AKFTA) on Indonesia trade: A gravity model approach. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 17(1), 1-7.
Anderson, J. E., & Marcouiller, D. (2002). Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2), 342–352. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465302317411587
Anggraeni, P., Daniels, P., & Davey, P. (2017). The Contribution of Natural Resources on Economic Welfare in Indonesia. Jurnal Perencanaan Pembangunan: The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 1(3), 210–223. https://doi.org/10.36574/jpp.v1i3.20
Ardiyanti, S. T. (2015). Dampak Perjanjian Perdagangan Indonesia - Jepang (Ijepa) Terhadap Kinerja Perdagangan Bilateral. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 9(2), 129–151. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v9i2.5
Argentiero, A., Cerqueti, R., & Sabatini, F. (2021). Does social capital explain the Solow residual? A DSGE approach. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 58, 35–53. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.04.008
Astriyany, A., & Takahashi, S. (2021). Trade Liberalization, Foreign Direct Investment Liberalization, and Wage Inequality in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik, 12(1), 1–13.
Avivi, M. S. Y. (2020). Kepentingan Indonesia dalam kerja sama Bilateral dengan Jepang Studi KASUS: Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA). Paradigma POLISTAAT: Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Dan Ilmu Politik, 3(1), 49–61.
Bappenas RI. (2021). Perkembangan Ekonomi Indonesia dan Dunia. Jakarta: Bappenas.
Benny, J. (2013). Ekspor Dan Impor Pengaruhnya Terhadap Posisi Cadangan Devisa di Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 1(4), 1406–1415.
Cahyaningtyas, D. P., & Aminata, J. (2020). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Perdagangan Indonesia Dengan Negara-Negara Anggota APEC. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 3(3), 219–233.
De Groot, H. L. F., Linders, G.-J., Rietveld, P., & Subramanian, U. (2004). The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns. KYKLOS: International Review for Social Science, 57(1), 103–123. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0023-5962.2004.00245.x
Dritsakis, N. 2004. A Causal Relationship between Inflation and Productivity: An Empirical Approach for Romania. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 1(2), 121–128. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2004.121.128
Haq, G. (2012). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Exports – A Case Study of Pakistan. Sarhad University of Science and Information Technology, Pakistan: University Town Peshawar
Ilmas, N., Amelia, M., & Risandi, R. (2022). Analysis of the Effect of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Exports in 5-Year Asean Countries (Years 2010–2020). Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 2(1), 121–132. https://doi.org/10.25105/jet.v2i1.13561
Ingot, S. R., & Hastjarjo, R. M. (2017). Analisis Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan Barang pada Perundingan Indonesia–EU CEPA terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 11(2), 123-142. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v11i2.223
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues (No. 5430; Issue September). Washington, D.C: The World Bank
Krugman, P.R., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M.J. (2015). International Economics: Theory and Policy, (8th edition). London: Pearson.
Mahadiansar, M., Setiawan, R., Darmawan, E., & Kurnianingsih, F. (2021). Realitas Perkembangan Investasi Asing Langsung di Indonesia Tahun 2019. Matra Pembaruan, 5(1), 65–75. https://doi.org/10.21787/mp.5.1.2021.65-75
Mukhtarov, S., Alalawneh, M. M., Ibadov, E., & Huseynli, A. (2019). The impact of foreign direct investment on exports in Jordan: An empirical analysis. Journal of International Studies, 12(3), 38–47. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-3/4
Statista Research Department. (2022). Natural resources in Indonesia - Statistics & Facts. Report series in Statista Research Department
Nairobi, N., & Respitasari, R. (2021). Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth in the Local Region. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 19(1), 51–60. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v19i1.13826
Narayan, Paresh and Smyth, Russell. (2011). The Effect of Inflation and Real Wages on Productivity: New Evidence from a Panel of G7 Countries. Applied Economics, 41(1), 1285– 1291. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701537810
Njong, A.M. & Tchakount’e, R. (2011). Investigating the effects of foreign direct investment on export growth in Cameroon. Faculty of Economics and Management, Cameroon: University of Dschang.
Pontes, J. P., & Pires, A. J. G. (2021). A geographical theory of (De)industrialization. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59, 567-574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.10.010
Purusa, N. A., & Istiqomah, N. (2018). Impact of FDI, COP, and Inflation to Export in Five ASEAN Countries. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 19(1), 94. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v19i1.5832
Pujiati, R., Firdaus, M., Adhi, A. K., & Brummer, B. (2014). The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements to The Commodity Trade Flows (Case Study: International Palm Oil Trade). Forum Agribisnis: Agribusiness Forum, 4(2), 193-206. https://doi.org/10.29244/fagb.4.2.193-206
Rusmin, J. H., Suryadi, A., & Abdullah, N. (2021). Analisis Proses Perundingan Kerja Sama IA-CEPA (Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) Tahun 2013-2018. Hasanuddin Journal of International Affairs, 1(2). 134-153.
Saimul, & Darmawan, A. (2020a). Trade Openness Effect on Provincial Economic Growth in Indonesia. WIGA Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(2), 87–100. https://doi.org/10.30741/wiga.v10i2.553
Saimul, & Darmawan, A. (2020b). Understanding Causality Relation among FDI, Foreign Trade and Economic Growth. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 9(4), 414–426. https://doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v9i4.39044
Selim, N., Reci, K. & Sadiku, L. (2016). The impact of FDI on the export performance: Empirical evidence for Western Balkan countries. ILIRIA International Review, 1(1), 57-66. https://doi.org/10.21113/iir.v6i1.235
Setyastuti, R., Adiningsih, S., & Widodo, T. (2018). The Role of Governance Quality in Increasing Intra-ASEAN Trade. (MPRA Paper No. 85258).
Sinn, H-W. (2014). Austerity, Growth, and Inflation: Remarks on the Eurozone's Unresolved Competitiveness Problem. The World Economy 37(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12130
Sonny, S. (2020). Indonesia di Tengah Himpitan Perang Dagang Amerika Serikat dan China. Jurnal Renaissance, 5(1), 617-623. https://doi.org/10.53878/jr.v5i1.114
Taufiqqurrachman, F., & Handoyo, R. D. (2021). Analisis Dampak IC-CEPA terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 15(1), 27–50. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i1.439
Wang, Y. (2020). Causes of U.S.-China trade imbalances: a review. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 13(1), 37-44. https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2020-0003
Wibowo, D. (2015). Pengaruh Pendapatan Per Kapita, Economic Growth Rate, Economic Structure, dan Tax Rate Terhadap Tax Ratio Pada Negara-Negara Oecd Dan Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Jember, 11(1), 45-61. https://doi.org/10.19184/jauj.v11i1.1260
World Trade Organization. (2012). Trade in Natural Resources. WTO Public Forum 2011, 73–100. https://doi.org/10.30875/4e4df748-en
World Trade Organization. (2021). Economic Resilience and Trade. Jenewa: World Trade Organization.
Wuri, J. (2018). Fluktuasi Kurs Valuta Asing Di Beberapa Negara Asia Tenggara. EXERO: Journal of Research in Business and Economics, 1(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.24071/exero.2018.010101
Yuliani, F., Siregar, H., Widyastutik, W., & Rifin, A. (2019). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Spillover, Technology and Firm Size on the Productivity of Domestic Firm in Food Industry. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 9(3), 287–296. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.7905
Zulfira, R. D. (2019). Dampak Hubungan Bilateral Indonesia Dengan Jepang Sebelum Dan Sesudah Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA). Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 2(1), 124–134. https://doi.org/10.33005/jdep.v2i1.83