Main Article Content
Abstract
The dynamic relationship between macroeconomic conditions, global gold prices, and stock market performance has been a major focus in various studies. This study investigates the impact of inflation, BI rates, and gold prices on the stock prices of Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia. Using monthly data from January 2021 to December 2023. The method employed panel data regression using the Random Effect Model. The findings indicate that inflation has a negative and significant impact on the Islamic banks stock prices, while BI rates has insignificant effect. On the other hand, inflation has a positive and significant effect on the conventional banks’ stock prices, along with BI rates also having a positive and significant impact. However, global gold prices do not have a significant effect on the stock prices of either Islamic or conventional banks. These results provide deeper insights into how macroeconomic factors influence the performance of the stock market for Islamic and conventional banks in Indonesia.
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References
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- Alshammari, A. A., Altarturi, B., & Saiti, B. (2019). The impact of exchange rate , oil price and gold price on the Kuwaiti stock market : a wavelet analysis. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 17(1), 31–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.25428/1824-2979/202001-31-54
- Annas, M., Humairoh, H., & Endri, E. (2024). Macroeconomic and bank-specific factors on non-performing loan: evidence from an emerging economy. Quality - Access to Success, 25(199), 155–161. https://doi.org/10.47750/QAS/25.199.17
- Antonio, M. S., Rusydiana, A. S., Soeparno, W. S. I., Rani, L. N., Pratomo, W. A., & Nasution, A. A. (2021). The impact of oil price and other macroeconomic variables on the islamic and conventional stock index in indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(5), 418–424. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10911
- Ashraf, S., Marashdeh, H., & Muhammad, N. (2020). Impact of macroeconomic variables on Islamic and conventional stock market returns: a panel data approach. Global Business and Economics Review, 23(4), 390. https://doi.org/10.1504/gber.2020.10031722
- Azmat, S., Azad, A. S. M. S., Ghaffar, H., Hayat, A., & Chazi, A. (2020). Conventional vs Islamic banking and macroeconomic risk: Impact on asset price bubbles. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 62(October 2019), 101351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101351
- Bahloul, S., Mroua, M., & Naifar, N. (2017). The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(1), 62–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2016.09.003
- Cahyono, E. F., Rani, L. N., & Mardianto, M. F. F. (2022). The determinants of deposits in Islamic and conventional banks: an Indonesian study. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 15(3), 273-292. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMEF.2022.126903
- Cetin, H. (2019). Inflation and bank profitability: G20 countries banks panel data analysis. In Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Management Science and Industrial Engineering (pp. 168-172). https://doi.org/10.1145/3335550.3335574
- Dhrymes, P. (2017). Introductory econometrics. New York: Springer-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/ 9783319659169
- Elbadri, M., & Bektaş, E. (2022). Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(2), 2153-2168. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/ijfe.2265
- Esmaeil, J., Rjoub, H., & Wong, W. K. (2020). Do oil price shocks and other factors create bigger impacts on islamic banks than conventional banks? Energies, 13(12), 1–16. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/en13123106
- Habib, M., & Islam, K. U. (2017). Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Islamic Stock Market Returns : Evidence From Nifty 50 Shariah Index. Journal of Commerce & Accounting Research, 6(1), 37.
- Hallak Kantakji, M. (2019). The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on US Islamic and Conventional Equity. JKAU: Islamic Econ, 32(2), 43-58. https://doi:10.4197/Islec. 32-2.3
- Hanif, M. (2018). Causality among Stock Market and Macroeconomic Factors: A Comparison of Conventional and Islamic Stocks. Journal of Islamic Business and Management (JIBM), 8(2), 423–449. https://doi.org/10.26501/jibm/2018.0802-006
- Ho, S. Y., & Njindan Iyke, B. (2017). Determinants of stock market development: a review of the literature. Studies in Economics and Finance, 34(1), 143–164. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-05-2016-0111.
- Jawadi, F., Jawadi, N., & Louhichi, W. (2014). Conventional and Islamic stock price performance: An empirical investigation. International Economics, 137, 73–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco. 2013.11.002.
- Joseph, A., E, G., Radhakrishnan, R., & Jain, R. (2024). Macro-financial nexus: a systematic review on the impact of macroeconomic factors on bank stock returns. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2354101
- Kalyatun, S., Waluyo, T., Muis, M., & Munir, A. R. (2021). The Islamic Stock Market and Macroeconomic Relationship. Psychology and Education, 58(1), 265-275. https://doi.org/ 10.17762/pae.v58i1.769.
- Keswani, S., & Wadhwa, B. (2019). Evaluating the impact of macroeconomic variable on Indian stock market. International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology, 8(6), 4427-4434. http://www.doi.org/10.35940/ijeat.F8972.088619
- Khan, F., & Ullah Jan, S. (2022). Portfolio Diversification Across Islamic Vs. Conventional Banks: The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Stock Volatility. Journal of Islamic Business and Management (JIBM), 12(02), 218–239. https://doi.org/10.26501/jibm/2022.1202-006.
- Mohd Yusof, R., Usman, F. H., Mahfudz, A. A., & Arif, A. S. (2018). Macroeconomic shocks, fragility and home financing in Malaysia: can rental index be the answer? Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 9(1), 17–44. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-11-2015-0058.
- Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Singh, H. (2014). The determinants of stock prices: New evidence from the Indian Banking Sector. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(2), 5–15. https://doi.org/ 10.2753/REE1540-496X500201.
- Ogunode, N. J., Eze, I. N., & Olumodeji, I. M. (2024). Assessment of Impact of Inflation on University Management in North-Central, Nigeria. American Journal of Science and Learning for Development, 3(3), 1-6. https://www.doi.org/10.51699/ajsld. v3i3.346.
- Ramli, M. R., Masbar, R., Majid, M. S. A., & Djalil, M. A. (2021). The Analysis Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Shariah and Conventional Market Share at Indonesia. Palarch’s Journal of Archeology of Egypt/Egyptology, 18(1), 3450–3466.
- Raza, N., Jawad Hussain Shahzad, S., Tiwari, A. K., & Shahbaz, M. (2016). Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets. Resources Policy, 49, 290–301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.06.011.
- Rehman, J. ur, & Rashid, A. (2022). Impacts of Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Risks on Growth and Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks: An Empirical Analysis from Pakistan. Journal of Asian Finance, 9(2), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2022.vol9.no2.0001
- Rizvi, S. A. R., Arshad, S., & Alam, N. (2015). Crises and contagion in Asia Pacific - Islamic v/s conventional markets. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 34, 315–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.pacfin.2015.04.002.
- Rjoub, H., Civcir, I., & Resatoglu, N. G. (2017). Micro and macroeconomic determinants of stock prices: The case of Turkish banking sector. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 20(1), 150–166.
- Sadrinata, F. F., & Rani, L. N. (2020). Analisis Perbandingan Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Stabilitas Bank Syariah Dan Bank Konvensional Di Indonesia Periode Tahun 2010-2017. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori Dan Terapan, 6(10), 2095. https://doi.org/10.20473/ vol6iss201910pp2095-2109.
- Safitri, J., Rahayu, H. C., Jayadi, J., Triastuti, Y., Gunawan, Y. I., & Ariyanti, A. (2023). Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators on Stock Price Indices With the Vector Error Correction Model Approach. Corporate and Business Strategy Review, 4(4), 288–294. https://doi.org/10.22495/ cbsrv4i4siart10.
- Saputra, D. C., Hamidi, I., & Syathiri, A. (2024). Comparative Analysis of Sharia Stock Price Indices in Indonesia , Turkey , China , and Malaysia : A Study of Integration in Sharia Capital Markets. Journal of Islamic Civilization, 1013, 157–176. https://doi.org/10.33086/jic.v5i2.5407.
- Schrank, J. (2024). The impact of a crisis on monetary policy’s influence on financial markets: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 2322874. https:// doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2322874
- Shabbir, A., Kousar, S., & Batool, S. A. (2020). Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(50), 279–294. https:// doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-04-2019-0053.
- Sholpanbaeva, K. G. (2021). Globalization of the Economy and its Impact on the Financial Policy of Kazakhstan. Viešoji Politika Ir Administravimas Public Policy And Administration, 2603, 384–397. https://doi.org/10.13165/VPA-21-20-4-03.
- Sidhu, A., & Katoch, R. (2021). Do International Gold Prices And Nse Nifty 50 Move Together?. Advances in Mathematics: Scientific Journal, 10(1), 497-506. https://doi.org/ 10.37418/amsj.10.1.49
- Simbolon, L., & Purwanto. (2018). The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Price: The Case of Real Estate and Property Companies. Global Tensions in Financial Markets Research in Finance, 34, 19–39. https://doi.org/10.1108/s0196-382120170000034010.
- Terraza, V., Boru İpek, A., & Rounaghi, M. M. (2024). The nexus between the volatility of Bitcoin, gold, and American stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from VAR-DCC-EGARCH and ANN models. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 1-34. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00520-3.
- Thorbecke, W. (2024). Macroeconomic Shocks and Economic Performance in Malaysia: A Sectoral Analysis. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(3), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/ jrfm17030116.
- Yahya, M., & Hussin, M. (2012). Macroeconomic Variables and Malaysian Islamic Stock Market: A Time Series Analysis. Journal of Business Studies Quarterly, 3(4), 1–13.
- Zhu, Y., Fan, J., & Tucker, J. (2018). Research in International Business and Finance The impact of monetary policy on gold price dynamics. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 319–331. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.100.
References
Abbass, K., Sharif, A., Song, H., Ali, M. T., Khan, F., & Amin, N. (2022). Do geopolitical oil price risk, global macroeconomic fundamentals relate Islamic and conventional stock market? Empirical evidence from QARDL approach. Resources Policy, 77(October 2021), 102730. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102730
Alshammari, A. A., Altarturi, B., & Saiti, B. (2019). The impact of exchange rate , oil price and gold price on the Kuwaiti stock market : a wavelet analysis. The European Journal of Comparative Economics, 17(1), 31–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.25428/1824-2979/202001-31-54
Annas, M., Humairoh, H., & Endri, E. (2024). Macroeconomic and bank-specific factors on non-performing loan: evidence from an emerging economy. Quality - Access to Success, 25(199), 155–161. https://doi.org/10.47750/QAS/25.199.17
Antonio, M. S., Rusydiana, A. S., Soeparno, W. S. I., Rani, L. N., Pratomo, W. A., & Nasution, A. A. (2021). The impact of oil price and other macroeconomic variables on the islamic and conventional stock index in indonesia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(5), 418–424. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10911
Ashraf, S., Marashdeh, H., & Muhammad, N. (2020). Impact of macroeconomic variables on Islamic and conventional stock market returns: a panel data approach. Global Business and Economics Review, 23(4), 390. https://doi.org/10.1504/gber.2020.10031722
Azmat, S., Azad, A. S. M. S., Ghaffar, H., Hayat, A., & Chazi, A. (2020). Conventional vs Islamic banking and macroeconomic risk: Impact on asset price bubbles. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 62(October 2019), 101351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101351
Bahloul, S., Mroua, M., & Naifar, N. (2017). The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(1), 62–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2016.09.003
Cahyono, E. F., Rani, L. N., & Mardianto, M. F. F. (2022). The determinants of deposits in Islamic and conventional banks: an Indonesian study. International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 15(3), 273-292. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJMEF.2022.126903
Cetin, H. (2019). Inflation and bank profitability: G20 countries banks panel data analysis. In Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Management Science and Industrial Engineering (pp. 168-172). https://doi.org/10.1145/3335550.3335574
Dhrymes, P. (2017). Introductory econometrics. New York: Springer-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/ 9783319659169
Elbadri, M., & Bektaş, E. (2022). Dynamic relationship among the bank stability, oil, and gold prices: Evidence from the Islamic banks operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(2), 2153-2168. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/ijfe.2265
Esmaeil, J., Rjoub, H., & Wong, W. K. (2020). Do oil price shocks and other factors create bigger impacts on islamic banks than conventional banks? Energies, 13(12), 1–16. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/en13123106
Habib, M., & Islam, K. U. (2017). Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Islamic Stock Market Returns : Evidence From Nifty 50 Shariah Index. Journal of Commerce & Accounting Research, 6(1), 37.
Hallak Kantakji, M. (2019). The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on US Islamic and Conventional Equity. JKAU: Islamic Econ, 32(2), 43-58. https://doi:10.4197/Islec. 32-2.3
Hanif, M. (2018). Causality among Stock Market and Macroeconomic Factors: A Comparison of Conventional and Islamic Stocks. Journal of Islamic Business and Management (JIBM), 8(2), 423–449. https://doi.org/10.26501/jibm/2018.0802-006
Ho, S. Y., & Njindan Iyke, B. (2017). Determinants of stock market development: a review of the literature. Studies in Economics and Finance, 34(1), 143–164. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-05-2016-0111.
Jawadi, F., Jawadi, N., & Louhichi, W. (2014). Conventional and Islamic stock price performance: An empirical investigation. International Economics, 137, 73–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco. 2013.11.002.
Joseph, A., E, G., Radhakrishnan, R., & Jain, R. (2024). Macro-financial nexus: a systematic review on the impact of macroeconomic factors on bank stock returns. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2354101
Kalyatun, S., Waluyo, T., Muis, M., & Munir, A. R. (2021). The Islamic Stock Market and Macroeconomic Relationship. Psychology and Education, 58(1), 265-275. https://doi.org/ 10.17762/pae.v58i1.769.
Keswani, S., & Wadhwa, B. (2019). Evaluating the impact of macroeconomic variable on Indian stock market. International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology, 8(6), 4427-4434. http://www.doi.org/10.35940/ijeat.F8972.088619
Khan, F., & Ullah Jan, S. (2022). Portfolio Diversification Across Islamic Vs. Conventional Banks: The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Stock Volatility. Journal of Islamic Business and Management (JIBM), 12(02), 218–239. https://doi.org/10.26501/jibm/2022.1202-006.
Mohd Yusof, R., Usman, F. H., Mahfudz, A. A., & Arif, A. S. (2018). Macroeconomic shocks, fragility and home financing in Malaysia: can rental index be the answer? Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 9(1), 17–44. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-11-2015-0058.
Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Singh, H. (2014). The determinants of stock prices: New evidence from the Indian Banking Sector. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50(2), 5–15. https://doi.org/ 10.2753/REE1540-496X500201.
Ogunode, N. J., Eze, I. N., & Olumodeji, I. M. (2024). Assessment of Impact of Inflation on University Management in North-Central, Nigeria. American Journal of Science and Learning for Development, 3(3), 1-6. https://www.doi.org/10.51699/ajsld. v3i3.346.
Ramli, M. R., Masbar, R., Majid, M. S. A., & Djalil, M. A. (2021). The Analysis Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Shariah and Conventional Market Share at Indonesia. Palarch’s Journal of Archeology of Egypt/Egyptology, 18(1), 3450–3466.
Raza, N., Jawad Hussain Shahzad, S., Tiwari, A. K., & Shahbaz, M. (2016). Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets. Resources Policy, 49, 290–301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2016.06.011.
Rehman, J. ur, & Rashid, A. (2022). Impacts of Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Risks on Growth and Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks: An Empirical Analysis from Pakistan. Journal of Asian Finance, 9(2), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2022.vol9.no2.0001
Rizvi, S. A. R., Arshad, S., & Alam, N. (2015). Crises and contagion in Asia Pacific - Islamic v/s conventional markets. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 34, 315–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.pacfin.2015.04.002.
Rjoub, H., Civcir, I., & Resatoglu, N. G. (2017). Micro and macroeconomic determinants of stock prices: The case of Turkish banking sector. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 20(1), 150–166.
Sadrinata, F. F., & Rani, L. N. (2020). Analisis Perbandingan Pengaruh Variabel Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Stabilitas Bank Syariah Dan Bank Konvensional Di Indonesia Periode Tahun 2010-2017. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori Dan Terapan, 6(10), 2095. https://doi.org/10.20473/ vol6iss201910pp2095-2109.
Safitri, J., Rahayu, H. C., Jayadi, J., Triastuti, Y., Gunawan, Y. I., & Ariyanti, A. (2023). Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators on Stock Price Indices With the Vector Error Correction Model Approach. Corporate and Business Strategy Review, 4(4), 288–294. https://doi.org/10.22495/ cbsrv4i4siart10.
Saputra, D. C., Hamidi, I., & Syathiri, A. (2024). Comparative Analysis of Sharia Stock Price Indices in Indonesia , Turkey , China , and Malaysia : A Study of Integration in Sharia Capital Markets. Journal of Islamic Civilization, 1013, 157–176. https://doi.org/10.33086/jic.v5i2.5407.
Schrank, J. (2024). The impact of a crisis on monetary policy’s influence on financial markets: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1), 2322874. https:// doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2322874
Shabbir, A., Kousar, S., & Batool, S. A. (2020). Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(50), 279–294. https:// doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-04-2019-0053.
Sholpanbaeva, K. G. (2021). Globalization of the Economy and its Impact on the Financial Policy of Kazakhstan. Viešoji Politika Ir Administravimas Public Policy And Administration, 2603, 384–397. https://doi.org/10.13165/VPA-21-20-4-03.
Sidhu, A., & Katoch, R. (2021). Do International Gold Prices And Nse Nifty 50 Move Together?. Advances in Mathematics: Scientific Journal, 10(1), 497-506. https://doi.org/ 10.37418/amsj.10.1.49
Simbolon, L., & Purwanto. (2018). The Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Price: The Case of Real Estate and Property Companies. Global Tensions in Financial Markets Research in Finance, 34, 19–39. https://doi.org/10.1108/s0196-382120170000034010.
Terraza, V., Boru İpek, A., & Rounaghi, M. M. (2024). The nexus between the volatility of Bitcoin, gold, and American stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from VAR-DCC-EGARCH and ANN models. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 1-34. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00520-3.
Thorbecke, W. (2024). Macroeconomic Shocks and Economic Performance in Malaysia: A Sectoral Analysis. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 17(3), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/ jrfm17030116.
Yahya, M., & Hussin, M. (2012). Macroeconomic Variables and Malaysian Islamic Stock Market: A Time Series Analysis. Journal of Business Studies Quarterly, 3(4), 1–13.
Zhu, Y., Fan, J., & Tucker, J. (2018). Research in International Business and Finance The impact of monetary policy on gold price dynamics. Research in International Business and Finance, 44, 319–331. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.100.