Main Article Content
Abstract
This study examines the impact of income, exchange rates, political conditions, and health factors on Indonesian tourism demand from 2010 to 2019, using multiple and panel regression analyses with data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the World Bank, the Central Bank of Indonesia (BI), and the World Health Organization (WHO). The findings indicate that the income of tourists from China, Australia, Timor Leste, and other analyzed countries positively affects tourism demand, while income from Malaysia and Singapore shows no significant effect. Exchange rates positively influence tourists from Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Timor Leste, and other analyzed countries, but have no significant effect on Chinese tourists. Political conditions negatively impact Australian tourists, positively influence tourists from other analyzed countries, and have no significant effect on tourists from Malaysia, China, Singapore, and Timor Leste. Health factors negatively affect tourists, while having no significant effect on tourists from Singapore and Australia. The study recommends that the government enhance tourism supply to boost demand, with a focus on improving environmental sustainability, health, tourism service infrastructure, and security and safety. Additionally, there is a need for standardized governance rules to better manage the impacts of outbreaks or disasters on the tourism sector.
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References
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- Martins, L. F., Gan, Y., & Ferreira-Lopes, A. (2017). An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Macroeconomic Determinants on World Tourism Demand. Tourism Management, 61, 248–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.008
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- Salleh, N. H. M. (2008). Asian Tourism Demand For Malaysia: A Bound Test Approach. Contemporary Management Research, 4(4), 351–368. https://doi.org/10.7903/cmr.1178
- Shi, W., & Li, K. X. (2017). Impact of Unexpected Events on Inbound Tourism Demand Modeling: Evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak in South Korea. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(3), 344–356. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2016.1250795
- Shrestha, N. (2020). Detecting Multicollinearity in Regression Analysis. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 8(2), 39-42. https://doi.org/10.12691/ajams-8-2-1
- Song, H., Li, G., Witt, S. F., & Fei, B. (2010). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: How should demand be measured? Tourism Economics, 16(1), 63–81. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010790872213
- Suhel, S., & Bashir, A. (2018). The Role of Tourism toward Economic Growth in the Local Economy. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 10(1), 32–39. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss1.art4
- Tavares, Redrigo. (2016). ESG Factors and Risk-Adjusted Performance: a New Quantitative Model. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 6(4), 292-300. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2016.1234909
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References
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2022). Statistik Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.
Bakar, N. A., & Rosbi, S. (2020). Effect of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) to Tourism Industry. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 7(4), 189–193. https://doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.74.23
Balli, F. (2019). Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Demand in Emerging Economies. Tourism Economics, 25, 997–1005. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619831824
Bazher, S. S. (2016). Upaya Pemerintah Indonesia Dalam Meningkatkan Wisatawan Mancanegara Asal Singapura Melalui Program Wonderful Indonesia Tahun 2011-2014. Global and Policy Journal of International Relations, 4(1), 1-14.
Borhan, N. dan Arsad, Z. (2016). Determining Factors Affecting Tourism Demand for Malaysia using ARDL Modeling: A Case of Europe Countries. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1782. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4966095
Chen, Z., & Haynes, K. E. (2015). Impact of High-Speed Rail on International Tourism Demand in China. Applied Economics Letters, 22(1), 57–60. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2014.925043
Cheng, K. M. (2016). Medical Tourism: Chinese Maternity Tourism to Hong Kong. Current Issues in Tourism, 19(14), 1479–1486. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2015.1042359
Croes, R. R., & Vanegas, M. (2005). An Econometric Study of Tourist Arrivals in Aruba and its Implications. Tourism Management, 26(6), 879–890. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2004.04.007
Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M.-H., & Marco Lau, C. K. (2020). Asymmetric Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Turkey’s Tourist Arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
Dogru, T., & Sirakaya-Turk, E. (2018). Modeling Turkish Outbound Tourism Demand using a Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 18(4), 411–414. https://doi.org/10.1177/1467358416663822
Dogru, T., Sirakaya-Turk, E., & Crouch, G. I. (2017). Remodeling International Tourism Demand: Old Theory and New Evidence. Tourism Management, 60, 47–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.11.010
Durbarry, R., & Sinclair, M. T. (2003). Analyse des parts de marché : Le cas de la demande touristique française. Annals of Tourism Research, 30(4), 927–941. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(03)00058-6
Fu, X., Ridderstaat, J., & Jia, H. (Chenge). (2020). Are All Tourism Markets Equal? Linkages Between Market-Based Tourism Demand, Quality of Life, and Economic Development in Hong Kong. Tourism Management, 77, 104015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104015
Gössling, S., Scott, D., & Hall, C. M. (2021). Pandemics, Tourism and Global Change: a Rapid Assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 29(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708
Gujarati, D., Economics, P. O. F., Of, E., Issues, S., Economics, M., Economics, I., Economics, A., & Economics, U. (2009). Single-Equation Regression Models. In Introductory Econometrics: A Practical Approach. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203157688
Halim, S. S. A. (2020). Modeling and Forecasting of Tourism Demand in Malaysia. International Journal of Current Science Research and Review, 3(12), 230-244. https://doi.org/10.47191/ijcsrr/v3-i12-06
Haq, M. Z., & Ullah, R. (2019). Tourism Demand Function for Pakistan. Journal Of Social Sciences & Humanities, 3(1 & 2), 1–17.
Hidayat, A. S. (2019). Persiapan Sektor Pariwisata Indonesia. LIPI Press.
Husein, J., & Kara, S. M. (2020). Nonlinear ARDL Estimation of Tourism Demand for Puerto Rico from the USA. Tourism Management, 77(September 2019), 103998. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.103998
Jong, M.-C. (2020). Empirical Review on Tourism Demand and COVID-19. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 103919, 1–7. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/id/eprint/103919
Khan, A., Bibi, S., Lorenzo, A., Lyu, J., & Babar, Z. U. (2020). Tourism and Development in Developing Economies: A Policy Implication Perspective. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(4), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041618
Lee, C. C. (2021). Geopolitical Risk and Tourism: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(1), 26–31. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2389
Liu, H., Liu, W., & Wang, Y. (2021). A Study On The Influencing Factors Of Tourism Demand from Mainland China To Hong Kong. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 45(1), 171–191. https://doi.org/10.1177/1096348020944435
Mariyono, J. (2017). Determinants of Demand for Foreign Tourism in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 18(1), 82-92. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v18i1.2042
Martins, L. F., Gan, Y., & Ferreira-Lopes, A. (2017). An Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Macroeconomic Determinants on World Tourism Demand. Tourism Management, 61, 248–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.008
Puah, C.-H., Jong, M.-C., Ayob, N., & Ismail, S. (2018). The Impact of Tourism on the Local Economy in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Management, 13(12), 151-157. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v13n12p151
Rosello, J. (2017). Infectious Disease Risk and International Tourism Demand. Health Policy and Planning, 32(4), 538–548. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/heapol/czw177
Salleh, N. H. M. (2008). Asian Tourism Demand For Malaysia: A Bound Test Approach. Contemporary Management Research, 4(4), 351–368. https://doi.org/10.7903/cmr.1178
Shi, W., & Li, K. X. (2017). Impact of Unexpected Events on Inbound Tourism Demand Modeling: Evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak in South Korea. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(3), 344–356. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2016.1250795
Shrestha, N. (2020). Detecting Multicollinearity in Regression Analysis. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 8(2), 39-42. https://doi.org/10.12691/ajams-8-2-1
Song, H., Li, G., Witt, S. F., & Fei, B. (2010). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: How should demand be measured? Tourism Economics, 16(1), 63–81. https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010790872213
Suhel, S., & Bashir, A. (2018). The Role of Tourism toward Economic Growth in the Local Economy. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 10(1), 32–39. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss1.art4
Tavares, Redrigo. (2016). ESG Factors and Risk-Adjusted Performance: a New Quantitative Model. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 6(4), 292-300. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2016.1234909
Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical Risk, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from a Developing Country. Tourism Management, 75(May), 323–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
Vanegas, J., Valencia, M., Restrepo, J., & Muñeton, G. (2020). Modeling Determinants of Tourism Demand in Colombia. Tourism and Hospitality Management, 26(1), 49–67. https://doi.org/10.20867/thm.26.1.4
Yazdi, S. K., & Khanalizadeh, B. (2017). Tourism demand: A Panel Data Approach. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(8), 787–800. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2016.1170772