Main Article Content
Abstract
Unemployment is a common problem faced by developing countries such as Indonesia. As one of the indicators of economic development, unemployment has a complex nature and has an impact on various aspects. This study was conducted to determine the conditions and variables that affect the unemployment rate in Indonesia from 2014-2023. The data analysis used is a dynamic panel data econometric model using Generalized Method Moments (GMM). This model was developed by Arellano Bond that meets the criteria of unbiased, valid, and consistent. The results of the analysis show that the variables of economic growth, human development index, average years of schooling, total population, foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and number of poor people have a significant effect on the unemployment rate. In addition, the unemployment rate in the previous period also had a significant effect on the unemployment rate in the period when the study was conducted. The findings in the study provide information on strategies to stabilize labor demand and supply, increase investment, and implement efficient short-run and long-run policies as an effort to reduce unemployment in Indonesia.
Keywords
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References
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- Akinyele, O. D., Oloba, O. M., & Mah, G. (2023). Drivers of unemployment intensity in sub-Saharan Africa: do government intervention and natural resources matter? Review of Economics and Political Science, 8(3), 166–185. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-11-2020-0174
- Alawad, A. S., Kreishan, F., & Selim, M. (2020). Determinants of Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 8(4), 152–165. https://doi.org/10.35808/ijeba/576
- Alrabba, M. I. M. (2017). The Determinants of Unemployment Rate in Jordan: A Multivariate Approach. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(11), 109–117. https://doi.org/ 10.5539/ijef.v9n11p109
- Alrayes, S. E., & Wadi, R. M. A. (2018). Determinants of Unemployment in Bahrain. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 9(12), 64–74. https://doi.org/10.30845/ijbss.v9n12p8
- Anas, A. L., & Musah, A. (2023). Deepening Inequalities in Sub-Saharan Africa Amidst the Covid-19 Crisis: Education and Labor Market Spaces in Perspective. Human Arenas, 8, 503-520. https:// doi.org/10.1007/s42087-023-00343-9
- Anifowose, O. L., & Chummun, B. Z. (2025). A Panel data analysis of determinants of financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1999 to 2024. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(5), 275. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18050275
- Benedict, O. D. (2019). Human Capital Development and Growth in Africa: Does Youth Unemployment Matter? Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 7(4), 191–202. https://doi.org/ 10.18488/journal.8.2019.74.191.202
- Blinova, T., Bylina, S., & Rusanovskiy, V. (2015). Vocational Education in the System of Determinants of Reducing Youth Unemployment: Interregional Comparisons. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 214(June), 526–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.756
- Chand, K., Tiwari, R., & Phuyal, M. (2018). Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate: An Empirical Study of Indian Economy. PRAGATI : Journal of Indian Economy, 4(2), 130-137. https://doi.org/ 10.17492/pragati.v4i02.11468
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- Dhanoon, M. A., Dhannoon, M. A.-M., Basheer, M. M., & Hammadi, M. F. (2020). Do FDI and Domestic Investment Affect Unemployment in MENA Countries? Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Contemporary Iraq & the Arab World, 14(3), 223–236. https://doi.org/10.1386/ jciaw_00031_1
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- Durguti, E., Tmava, Q., Demiri-Kunoviku, F., & Krasniqi, E. (2021). Panel estimating effects of macroeconomic determinants on inflation: Evidence of Western Balkan. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1942601. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4961686
- Febriyanti, A. R., Rusgianto, S., Herianingrum, S., & Dasangga, D. G. R. (2024). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Productivity, and Growth on Indonesian Youth Unemployment. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 22(01), 40-53. http://dx.doi.org/10.22219/jep.v22i01.33037
- Folawewo, A. O., & Adeboje, O. M. (2017). Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Economic Community of West African States. African Development Review, 29(2), 197–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12250
- Fung, Y. V., & Nga, J. L. (2022). An investigation of economic growth, youth unemployment and inflation in ASEAN Countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 12(1), 1731-1755. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v12-i1/12023
- Haji, I. S., Ahmed, M. S., Abeid, A. R., & Issa, M. S. (2024). Do Investment and export affect Economic Growth? A case of Zanzibar. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 15(3), 1-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.7176/JESD/15-3-01
- Halleröd, B., Ekbrand, H., & Bengtsson, M. (2015). In-work poverty and labour market trajectories: Poverty risks among the working population in 22 European countries. Journal of European Social Policy, 25(5), 473–488. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928715608794
- Hjazeen, H., Seraj, M., & Ozdeser, H. (2021). The nexus between the economic growth and unemployment in Jordan. Future Business Journal, 7(1), 42. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-021-00088-3
- Imtiaz, S., Ali, A., Khan, Z., Ullah, M., Khan, M., & Jacquemod, J. (2020). Determinants of Youth Unemployment in Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(5), 171–177. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.10386
- Jeguirim, K. (2021). An inquiry into the regional unemployment disparities in Tunisia: a spatial Durbin model. Middle East Development Journal, 13(2), 265-291. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/ 17938120.2021.1958559
- Johnny, N., Timipere, E. T., Krokeme, O., & Markjackson, D. (2018). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Unemployment rate in Nigeria (1980-2015). International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 8(3), 56–68. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v8-i2/3905
- Jonsson, R., Rinaldi, F., Pilli, R., Fiorese, G., Hurmekoski, E., Cazzaniga, N., Robert, N., & Camia, A. (2021). Boosting the EU forest-based bioeconomy: Market, climate, and employment impacts. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 163, 120478. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore. 2020.120478
- Kukaj, D. (2018). Impact of Unemployment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Western Balkans. European Journal of Marketing and Economics, 1(1), 9–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.26417/ejme. v1i1.p10-18
- Kumar, V. (2024). Economic Growth without Jobs: Understanding the Global Unemployment Crisis. FOCUS: Journal of International Business, 11(1), 22–43. https://doi.org/10.17492/jpi.focus. v11i1.1112402
- Leiwakabessy, E., & Amaluddin, A. (2020). A Modified Human Development Index, Democracy And Economic Growth In Indonesia. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 8(2), 732–743. https:// doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.8282
- Madıto, O., & Khumalo, J. (2014). Economic growth - Unemployment nexus in South Africa: VECM approach. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(20), 79–84. https://doi.org/ 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n20p79
- Maijama’a, R., Musa, K. S., Yakubu, M., & Mohammed, N. (2019). Impact of population growth on unemployment in Nigeria: Dynamic OLS approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 10(22), 79-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.7176/JESD/10-22-09
- Marjit, B., Marjit, S., Gupta, K., & Kar, S. (2022). Indignity of Labor: Role of Occupational Prestige in Unemployment. CESifo Working Paper No. 9945. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4226412
- Mohamed, A. A. (2024). Economic growth and unemployment nexus: empirical test of Okun’s law in Somalia. Journal of Economic Structures, 13(1), 16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-024-00337-y
- Mohamud, Y. A., Marof, A. A., Mohamed, A. M., & Gure, M. M. (2023). The Effect of Population Growth on Unemployment Youth in Somalia. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 13(17), 149–155. https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v13-i17/19826
- Muhammad, U. F., & David, J. (2019). Relationship between Poverty and Unemployment in Niger State. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(1), 71–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v8i1.6725
- Niare, M., & Mariko, O. (2023). Unemployment in the WAEMU Countries: A Cross-Sectional Data Approach. World Journal of Applied Economics, 9(2), 113–124. https://doi.org/10.22440/ wjae.9.2.1
- Olabiyi, K. A., Fagbolae, L. O., & Banjo, O. O. (2024). Implications of population growth on unemployment in Nigeria: Testing the Malthusian and Keynesian Theories. Acta Politica Polonica, 57, 85-98. http://dx.doi.org/10.18276/ap.2024.57-06
- Pasara, M. T., & Garidzirai, R. (2020). Causality Effects among Gross Capital Formation, Unemployment and Economic Growth in South Africa. Economies, 8(2), 26. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/economies8020026
- Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). The role of population in economic growth. SAGE Open, 7(4), 2158244017736094. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244017736094
- Saka, N., & Moyanga, D. T. (2024). Impact of Construction Investment on the Unemployment Rate in Nigeria. Journal of Surveying Construction & Property, 15(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/ 10.22452/jscp.vol15no1.1
- Saryadi, S., Maksum, I. R., & Juwono, V. (2024). Implementation of link and match policy to enhance employment of graduates: A case study in vocational high schools. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(8), 5601. http://dx.doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i8.5601
- Şerifoğlu, M. M. (2023). Education and Employment: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries. Prague Economic Papers, 32(5), 569–588. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.839
- Shaturaev, J. (2021). 2045: Path to nation’s golden age (Indonesia Policies and Management of Education). “Science and Education” Scientific Journal, 2(12), 866–875. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3859-2526
- Siddiqa, A. (2021). Determinants Of Unemployment In Selected Developing Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Economic Impact, 3(1), 19–26. https://doi.org/10.52223/jei3012103
- Susilo, J. H., Tsani, L. I., Herianto, & Kholilurrohman, M. (2020). Econometrics Model of Economic Growth in East Java Province with Dynamic Panel Data through Arellano-Bond Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Approach. Ekuilibrium: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(1), 38–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v15i1.2020.pp38-54
- Widarni, E. L., & Wilantari, R. N. (2021). The relationship between human capital development and economic growth: Evidence from Malaysia. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(6), 641-650. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no6.0641
References
Abada, F. C., Manasseh, C. O., Nwakoby, I. C., Obidike, P. C., Okonkwo, O. N., & Alio, F. C. (2021). An Assessment of Inclusive Growth Policy as a Determinant of Unemployment Reduction in Nigeria: an Application of Autoregressive Distributed (ARDL) Bound Test Approach. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 17(4), 85–97. https://doi.org/10.14254/1800-5845/ 2021.17-4.8
Adelowokan, O. A., Maku, O. E., Babasanya, A. O., & Adesoye, A. B. (2019). Unemployment, poverty and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Management, 35(1), 5–17. https:// doi.org/10.22367/jem.2019.35.01
Aderounmu, B., Azuh, D., Onanuga, O., Oluwatomisin, O., Ebenezer, B., & Azuh, A. (2021). Poverty drivers and Nigeria’s development: Implications for policy intervention. Cogent Arts & Humanities, 8(1), 1927495. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311983.2021.1927495
Agustina, M., Astut, H., & Susilo, J. H. (2023). Unemployment in Indonesia: An Analysis of Economic Determinants from 2012-2021. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 12(1), 69–82. https://doi.org/ 10.15408/sjie.v12i1.29247
Akinyele, O. D., Oloba, O. M., & Mah, G. (2023). Drivers of unemployment intensity in sub-Saharan Africa: do government intervention and natural resources matter? Review of Economics and Political Science, 8(3), 166–185. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-11-2020-0174
Alawad, A. S., Kreishan, F., & Selim, M. (2020). Determinants of Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 8(4), 152–165. https://doi.org/10.35808/ijeba/576
Alrabba, M. I. M. (2017). The Determinants of Unemployment Rate in Jordan: A Multivariate Approach. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(11), 109–117. https://doi.org/ 10.5539/ijef.v9n11p109
Alrayes, S. E., & Wadi, R. M. A. (2018). Determinants of Unemployment in Bahrain. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 9(12), 64–74. https://doi.org/10.30845/ijbss.v9n12p8
Anas, A. L., & Musah, A. (2023). Deepening Inequalities in Sub-Saharan Africa Amidst the Covid-19 Crisis: Education and Labor Market Spaces in Perspective. Human Arenas, 8, 503-520. https:// doi.org/10.1007/s42087-023-00343-9
Anifowose, O. L., & Chummun, B. Z. (2025). A Panel data analysis of determinants of financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries from 1999 to 2024. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(5), 275. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18050275
Benedict, O. D. (2019). Human Capital Development and Growth in Africa: Does Youth Unemployment Matter? Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 7(4), 191–202. https://doi.org/ 10.18488/journal.8.2019.74.191.202
Blinova, T., Bylina, S., & Rusanovskiy, V. (2015). Vocational Education in the System of Determinants of Reducing Youth Unemployment: Interregional Comparisons. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 214(June), 526–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.756
Chand, K., Tiwari, R., & Phuyal, M. (2018). Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate: An Empirical Study of Indian Economy. PRAGATI : Journal of Indian Economy, 4(2), 130-137. https://doi.org/ 10.17492/pragati.v4i02.11468
Conteh, K. (2021). Economic Growth And Unemployment: An Empirical Assessment Of Okun’s Law In The Case Of Liberia. Economic Growth and Unemployment: An Empirical Assessment of Okun’s Law in The Case of Liberia (2001-2019), 12(14), 136–145. https://doi.org/10.7176/ JESD/12-14-13
Dhanoon, M. A., Dhannoon, M. A.-M., Basheer, M. M., & Hammadi, M. F. (2020). Do FDI and Domestic Investment Affect Unemployment in MENA Countries? Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Contemporary Iraq & the Arab World, 14(3), 223–236. https://doi.org/10.1386/ jciaw_00031_1
Dosi, G., Pereira, M. C., Roventini, A., & Virgillito, M. E. (2018). The effects of labour market reforms upon unemployment and income inequalities: an agent-based model. Socio-Economic Review, 16(4), 687–720. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwx054
Durguti, E., Tmava, Q., Demiri-Kunoviku, F., & Krasniqi, E. (2021). Panel estimating effects of macroeconomic determinants on inflation: Evidence of Western Balkan. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 1942601. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4961686
Febriyanti, A. R., Rusgianto, S., Herianingrum, S., & Dasangga, D. G. R. (2024). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Productivity, and Growth on Indonesian Youth Unemployment. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 22(01), 40-53. http://dx.doi.org/10.22219/jep.v22i01.33037
Folawewo, A. O., & Adeboje, O. M. (2017). Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Economic Community of West African States. African Development Review, 29(2), 197–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.12250
Fung, Y. V., & Nga, J. L. (2022). An investigation of economic growth, youth unemployment and inflation in ASEAN Countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 12(1), 1731-1755. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v12-i1/12023
Haji, I. S., Ahmed, M. S., Abeid, A. R., & Issa, M. S. (2024). Do Investment and export affect Economic Growth? A case of Zanzibar. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 15(3), 1-7. http://dx.doi.org/10.7176/JESD/15-3-01
Halleröd, B., Ekbrand, H., & Bengtsson, M. (2015). In-work poverty and labour market trajectories: Poverty risks among the working population in 22 European countries. Journal of European Social Policy, 25(5), 473–488. https://doi.org/10.1177/0958928715608794
Hjazeen, H., Seraj, M., & Ozdeser, H. (2021). The nexus between the economic growth and unemployment in Jordan. Future Business Journal, 7(1), 42. https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-021-00088-3
Imtiaz, S., Ali, A., Khan, Z., Ullah, M., Khan, M., & Jacquemod, J. (2020). Determinants of Youth Unemployment in Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(5), 171–177. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.10386
Jeguirim, K. (2021). An inquiry into the regional unemployment disparities in Tunisia: a spatial Durbin model. Middle East Development Journal, 13(2), 265-291. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/ 17938120.2021.1958559
Johnny, N., Timipere, E. T., Krokeme, O., & Markjackson, D. (2018). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Unemployment rate in Nigeria (1980-2015). International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 8(3), 56–68. https://doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v8-i2/3905
Jonsson, R., Rinaldi, F., Pilli, R., Fiorese, G., Hurmekoski, E., Cazzaniga, N., Robert, N., & Camia, A. (2021). Boosting the EU forest-based bioeconomy: Market, climate, and employment impacts. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 163, 120478. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore. 2020.120478
Kukaj, D. (2018). Impact of Unemployment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Western Balkans. European Journal of Marketing and Economics, 1(1), 9–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.26417/ejme. v1i1.p10-18
Kumar, V. (2024). Economic Growth without Jobs: Understanding the Global Unemployment Crisis. FOCUS: Journal of International Business, 11(1), 22–43. https://doi.org/10.17492/jpi.focus. v11i1.1112402
Leiwakabessy, E., & Amaluddin, A. (2020). A Modified Human Development Index, Democracy And Economic Growth In Indonesia. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 8(2), 732–743. https:// doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.8282
Madıto, O., & Khumalo, J. (2014). Economic growth - Unemployment nexus in South Africa: VECM approach. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(20), 79–84. https://doi.org/ 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n20p79
Maijama’a, R., Musa, K. S., Yakubu, M., & Mohammed, N. (2019). Impact of population growth on unemployment in Nigeria: Dynamic OLS approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 10(22), 79-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.7176/JESD/10-22-09
Marjit, B., Marjit, S., Gupta, K., & Kar, S. (2022). Indignity of Labor: Role of Occupational Prestige in Unemployment. CESifo Working Paper No. 9945. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4226412
Mohamed, A. A. (2024). Economic growth and unemployment nexus: empirical test of Okun’s law in Somalia. Journal of Economic Structures, 13(1), 16. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-024-00337-y
Mohamud, Y. A., Marof, A. A., Mohamed, A. M., & Gure, M. M. (2023). The Effect of Population Growth on Unemployment Youth in Somalia. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 13(17), 149–155. https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v13-i17/19826
Muhammad, U. F., & David, J. (2019). Relationship between Poverty and Unemployment in Niger State. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 8(1), 71–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v8i1.6725
Niare, M., & Mariko, O. (2023). Unemployment in the WAEMU Countries: A Cross-Sectional Data Approach. World Journal of Applied Economics, 9(2), 113–124. https://doi.org/10.22440/ wjae.9.2.1
Olabiyi, K. A., Fagbolae, L. O., & Banjo, O. O. (2024). Implications of population growth on unemployment in Nigeria: Testing the Malthusian and Keynesian Theories. Acta Politica Polonica, 57, 85-98. http://dx.doi.org/10.18276/ap.2024.57-06
Pasara, M. T., & Garidzirai, R. (2020). Causality Effects among Gross Capital Formation, Unemployment and Economic Growth in South Africa. Economies, 8(2), 26. https://doi.org/ 10.3390/economies8020026
Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). The role of population in economic growth. SAGE Open, 7(4), 2158244017736094. https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244017736094
Saka, N., & Moyanga, D. T. (2024). Impact of Construction Investment on the Unemployment Rate in Nigeria. Journal of Surveying Construction & Property, 15(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/ 10.22452/jscp.vol15no1.1
Saryadi, S., Maksum, I. R., & Juwono, V. (2024). Implementation of link and match policy to enhance employment of graduates: A case study in vocational high schools. Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, 8(8), 5601. http://dx.doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i8.5601
Şerifoğlu, M. M. (2023). Education and Employment: Evidence from Selected OECD Countries. Prague Economic Papers, 32(5), 569–588. https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.839
Shaturaev, J. (2021). 2045: Path to nation’s golden age (Indonesia Policies and Management of Education). “Science and Education” Scientific Journal, 2(12), 866–875. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3859-2526
Siddiqa, A. (2021). Determinants Of Unemployment In Selected Developing Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Economic Impact, 3(1), 19–26. https://doi.org/10.52223/jei3012103
Susilo, J. H., Tsani, L. I., Herianto, & Kholilurrohman, M. (2020). Econometrics Model of Economic Growth in East Java Province with Dynamic Panel Data through Arellano-Bond Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Approach. Ekuilibrium: Jurnal Ilmiah Bidang Ilmu Ekonomi, 15(1), 38–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.24269/ekuilibrium.v15i1.2020.pp38-54
Widarni, E. L., & Wilantari, R. N. (2021). The relationship between human capital development and economic growth: Evidence from Malaysia. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(6), 641-650. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no6.0641