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Abstract
This paper explores the economic consequences of demographic changes on development in 208 countries through 2100. We employ panel fixed effects models to estimate long-run equilibrium relationships between capital stock, labor force, and economic growth. Cointegration analysis confirms the existence of these long-run relationships. We affirm that there is a steady, long-run relationship between GDP, capital stock, and population. We also present our findings in an interactive web application, allowing users to explore how population shifts might impact economies worldwide. Highlighting key trends, we offer an illustrative case study of East Asia, while emphasizing the tool's universal applicability. Thus, this work does not seek to engage in specific academic discourse, but rather endeavors to contribute a valuable resource for informed public dialogue concerning the global economic implications of anticipated demographic transformations. The results show that the "Comparative Global Weights Forecasts" section showcases economic clout, illustrating Japan's decline and Indonesia's rise in global GDP rankings. Lastly, the "Comparative Regional Forecasts" section contrasts regional dynamics, such as East Asia & the Pacific versus South Asia, highlighting population peaks, economic growth disparities, and shifts in global GDP shares.
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References
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- Korwatanasakul, U., Sirivunnabood, P., & Majoe, A. (2021). Demographic transition and its impacts on fiscal sustainability in East and Southeast Asia. ADBI Working Paper Series
- Labelle, R. (2005). ICT Policy Formulation and e-Strategy Development – A Comprehensive Guidebook. UNDP-Asia Pacific Development Information Programme.
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- Sharma, R. (2021). Organization New Forms: Old Strategies during the E-Strategies Studying in the Cultural Industry. Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (TURCOMAT), 12(9), 887-891.
- Skakkebæk, N. E., Lindahl-Jacobsen, R., Levine, H., Andersson, A. M., Jørgensen, N., Main, K. M., Lidegaard, Ø., Priskorn, L., Holmboe, S. A., Bräuner, E. V., Almstrup, K., Franca, L. R., Znaor, A., Kortenkamp, A., Hart, R. J., Juul, A. (2022). Environmental factors in declining human fertility. Nature Reviews Endocrinology, 18(3), 139-157. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41574-021-00598-8
- Tonidandel, S., King, E.B., & Cortina, J.M. (2015). Big Data at Work: The Data Science Revolution and Organizational Psychology (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315780504
- United Nations. (2022). World Population Prospects 2022 (Series: Population Division Population by Five-year Age Groups - Both Sexes). Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.
- United Nations. (2023). National Accounts - Analysis of Main Aggregates (AMA) (Series: GDP and its breakdown at constant 2015 prices in US Dollars, All countries for all years - sorted alphabetically). Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.
- Weber, H. (2018). Age structure and political violence: a re-assessment of the “youth bulge” hypothesis. International Interactions, 45(1), 80–112. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2019.1522310
- Ye, L., & Yang, H. (2020). From digital divide to social inclusion: A tale of mobile platform empowerment in rural areas. Sustainability, 12(6), 2424. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062424
References
Aassve, A., Cavalli, N., Mencarini, L., Plach, S., & Livi Bacci, M. (2020). The COVID-19 pandemic and human fertility. Science, 369(6502), 370-371. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abc9520
Abdulnabi, S. M. (2024). Issues and challenges of implementing e-governance in developing countries: a comprehensive analysis of civil service models. Cogent Business & Management, 11(1), 2340579. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2340579
Akimov, A. V., Gemueva, K. A., & Semenova, N. K. (2021). The seventh population census in the PRC: results and prospects of the country’s demographic development. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 91(6), 724-735. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331621060083
Cheng, X., Yang, Y., Schwebel, D. C., Liu, Z., Li, L., Cheng, P., Ning, P., & Hu, G. (2020). Population aging and mortality during 1990–2017: a global decomposition analysis. PLoS medicine, 17(6), e1003138. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003138
Eberstadt, N. (2019). With Great Demographics Comes Great Power: Why Population Will Drive Geopolitics. Foreign Aff., 98, 146. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2019-06-11/great-demographics-comes-great-power
El Ammar, C., & Profiroiu, C. M. (2020). Innovation in public administration reform: a strategic reform through NPM, ICT, and e-governance. A comparative analysis between Lebanon and Romania. Administratie si Management Public, 35, 75-89.
Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R., & Timmer, M. P. (2015). The Next Generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150–3182. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer20130954
Ganie, M. T. (2022). Youth bulge and conflict. The Palgrave encyclopedia of peace and conflict studies, 1760-1765. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77954-2_113
Haas, M. L. (2015). Population ageing and the future of the great powers. History & Mathematics: Demography and Ageing, 133-146. https://www.socionauki.ru/book/files/history_and_mathematics_5/133-146.pdf
Jackson, R., & Howe, N. (2008). The graying of the great powers: demography and geopolitics in the 21st century. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Jones, C. I. (2022). The end of economic growth? Unintended consequences of a declining population. American Economic Review, 112(11), 3489-3527. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201605
Korwatanasakul, U., Sirivunnabood, P., & Majoe, A. (2021). Demographic transition and its impacts on fiscal sustainability in East and Southeast Asia. ADBI Working Paper Series
Labelle, R. (2005). ICT Policy Formulation and e-Strategy Development – A Comprehensive Guidebook. UNDP-Asia Pacific Development Information Programme.
Lesthaeghe, R. (2020). The second demographic transition, 1986–2020: sub-replacement fertility and rising cohabitation—a global update. Genus, 76, 1-38. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-020-00077-4
Lima, S. M., Kehm, R. D., & Terry, M. B. (2021). Global breast cancer incidence and mortality trends by region, age-groups, and fertility patterns. EClinicalMedicine, 38, 100985. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100985
Majeed, M. T., & Khan, F. N. (2019). Do information and communication technologies (ICTs) contribute to health outcomes? An empirical analysis. Quality & quantity, 53(1), 183-206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-018-0741-6
Makarov, V. L., Bakhtizin, A. R., Hua, L., Jie, W., Zili, W., & Sidorenko, M. Y. (2023). Long-Term Demographic Forecasting. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 93(5), 294-307. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331623010033
O’Sullivan, J. N. (2023). Demographic delusions: World population growth is exceeding most projections and jeopardising scenarios for sustainable futures. World, 4(3), 545-568. https://doi.org/10.3390/world4030034
Pesaran, M.H., and Y. Shin (1999). An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Edited by D.F. Hendry and M. Wickens, 67-110. Cambridge University Press.
Priharsari, D., Abedin, B., Burdon, S., Clegg, S., & Clay, J. (2023). National digital strategy development: Guidelines and lesson learnt from Asia Pacific countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 196, 122855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122855
Ramaj-Desku, B., & Ukaj, F. (2021). The E-Marketing Strategy Process in the Tourism Industry-Case Study Kosovo and Albania. Journal of Information and Organizational Sciences, 45(1), 137-169. https://doi.org/10.31341/jios.45.1.8
Sabaitytė, J., Meidute-Kavaliauskiene, I., Zinkevičiūtė, V., & Vasiliauskas, A. V. (2022). Framework for electronic business development as a prerequisite for top management to gain sustainable competitive advantage. International journal of learning and change, 14(5-6), 625-645. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJLC.2022.126486
Sharma, R. (2021). Organization New Forms: Old Strategies during the E-Strategies Studying in the Cultural Industry. Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (TURCOMAT), 12(9), 887-891.
Skakkebæk, N. E., Lindahl-Jacobsen, R., Levine, H., Andersson, A. M., Jørgensen, N., Main, K. M., Lidegaard, Ø., Priskorn, L., Holmboe, S. A., Bräuner, E. V., Almstrup, K., Franca, L. R., Znaor, A., Kortenkamp, A., Hart, R. J., Juul, A. (2022). Environmental factors in declining human fertility. Nature Reviews Endocrinology, 18(3), 139-157. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41574-021-00598-8
Tonidandel, S., King, E.B., & Cortina, J.M. (2015). Big Data at Work: The Data Science Revolution and Organizational Psychology (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315780504
United Nations. (2022). World Population Prospects 2022 (Series: Population Division Population by Five-year Age Groups - Both Sexes). Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.
United Nations. (2023). National Accounts - Analysis of Main Aggregates (AMA) (Series: GDP and its breakdown at constant 2015 prices in US Dollars, All countries for all years - sorted alphabetically). Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.
Weber, H. (2018). Age structure and political violence: a re-assessment of the “youth bulge” hypothesis. International Interactions, 45(1), 80–112. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2019.1522310
Ye, L., & Yang, H. (2020). From digital divide to social inclusion: A tale of mobile platform empowerment in rural areas. Sustainability, 12(6), 2424. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12062424