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Abstract
The anomalies in Indonesia's export data underpin this research, which examines the patterns of export diversification in Indonesia and its impact on economic growth using the ARDL model. This study investigates export diversification and its effects on economic growth, considering variables such as gross fixed capital formation and labor. The data used spans the period from 1989 to 2022. This study is the first to consider Indonesia as a case study with valid pre-estimation testing. This study found that export diversification has a significant impact on economic growth in Indonesia and provides valuable insights into the relationship between export diversification and economic growth, highlighting policy implications to encourage diversification and mitigate risks associated with dependence on a few key markets. This study emphasizes the need for better diversification strategies to ensure economic stability and long-run growth.
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References
- Abreha, K. G., Smeets, V., & Warzynski, F. (2020). Coping with the crisis and export diversification. The World Economy, 43(5), 1452–1481. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12937
- Aditya, A., & Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959–992. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2011.619009
- Agosin, M. R. (2009). Export diversification and growth in emerging economies. CEPAL Review, 2009(97), 115-131. https://doi.org/10.18356/27e5d46c-en
- Amin, A., Massey, D. B., & Thrift, N. J. (2000). Cities for the Many not the Few. Policy Press.
- Amir, F., Hakim, D. B., & Novianti, T. (2018). Dampak Diversifikasi Ekspor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara-Negara Anggota ASEAN. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 7(2), 118–139. https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.7.2.2018.118-139
- Athukorala, P., & Warr, P. G. (2002). Vulnerability to a currency crisis: lessons from the Asian experience. World Economy, 25(1), 33–57. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00419
- Azam, A. (2021). The Impact of Industrial Policy on Export Diversification: Some Empirical Evidences from Pakistan. Technium Social Sciences Journal, 5(2), 84–96. https://doi.org/10.47577/ tssj.v5i1.149
- Bajaj, P., Baris, K., Gonzales, P., Jabagat, C. R., Lazatin, J. E., & Tan, E. (2022). A Case for Value-added Exports in the Estimation of Export Diversification in Asia and the Pacific. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, 650. https://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS220068-2
- Espoir, L. M. (2020). Determinant of export diversification: An empirical analysis in the case of SADC countries. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), 9(7), 130–144. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v9i7.942
- Gamariel, G., Bomani, M., Musikavanhu, L., & Juana, J. (2022). Foreign direct investment and export diversification in developing countries. Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets & Institutions, 12(1), 74–89. https://doi.org/10.22495/rgcv12i1p6
- Giri, R., Quayyum, M. S. N., & Yin, R. (2019). Understanding export diversification: Key drivers and policy implications. International Monetary Fund.
- Haini, H., Loon, P. W., & Li, P. L. (2023). Can export diversification promote export upgrading? Evidence from an oil-dependent economy. Resources Policy, 80, 103292. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103292
- Handoyo, R. D., & Ibrahim, K. H. (2021). Determinants of Export Diversification in Developing Countries. Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, 20(4), 720–731. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.7232/iems.2021.20.4.720
- Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehnmann D, F. (2006). What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis. Applied Economics, 38(15), 1825–1838. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 00036840500426983
- Jongwanich, J. (2020). Export diversification, margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand. The World Economy, 43(10), 2674–2722. https://doi.org/10.1111/ twec.12921
- Lee, D., & Zhang, H. (2022). Export diversification in low-income countries and small states: Do country size and income level matter? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 60, 250–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.11.017
- Lugeiyamu, E. (2016). Is export diversification a key force to Africa’s economic growth?: cross-country evidence. Retrieved from https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-30541
- Mayer, T., Melitz, M. J., & Ottaviano, G. I. P. (2014). Market size, competition, and the product mix of exporters. American Economic Review, 104(2), 495–536. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104. 2.495
- Sarin, V., Mahapatra, S. K., & Sood, N. (2022). Export diversification and economic growth: A review and future research agenda. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(3), e2524. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ pa.2524
- Shadab, S., & Tiwari, A. (2021). The nexus between export diversification, imports, capital and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates: An empirical investigation. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 19143986. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1914396
- Siregar, H., & Daryanto, A. (2005). Perkembangan dan diversifikasi ekspor Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis, 2(2), 157–166. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.2.2.157-166
- Siswana, S., & Phiri, A. (2021). Is export diversification or export specialization responsible for economic growth in BRICS countries? The International Trade Journal, 35(3), 243–261. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2020.1842823
- World Bank. (2023). World Development Indicators Database Report. The World Bank. Available from: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
- World Bank. (2023). World Integrated Trade Solution Database Report. The World Bank. Available from: https://wits.worldbank.org/
References
Abreha, K. G., Smeets, V., & Warzynski, F. (2020). Coping with the crisis and export diversification. The World Economy, 43(5), 1452–1481. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12937
Aditya, A., & Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959–992. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2011.619009
Agosin, M. R. (2009). Export diversification and growth in emerging economies. CEPAL Review, 2009(97), 115-131. https://doi.org/10.18356/27e5d46c-en
Amin, A., Massey, D. B., & Thrift, N. J. (2000). Cities for the Many not the Few. Policy Press.
Amir, F., Hakim, D. B., & Novianti, T. (2018). Dampak Diversifikasi Ekspor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara-Negara Anggota ASEAN. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 7(2), 118–139. https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.7.2.2018.118-139
Athukorala, P., & Warr, P. G. (2002). Vulnerability to a currency crisis: lessons from the Asian experience. World Economy, 25(1), 33–57. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00419
Azam, A. (2021). The Impact of Industrial Policy on Export Diversification: Some Empirical Evidences from Pakistan. Technium Social Sciences Journal, 5(2), 84–96. https://doi.org/10.47577/ tssj.v5i1.149
Bajaj, P., Baris, K., Gonzales, P., Jabagat, C. R., Lazatin, J. E., & Tan, E. (2022). A Case for Value-added Exports in the Estimation of Export Diversification in Asia and the Pacific. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, 650. https://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS220068-2
Espoir, L. M. (2020). Determinant of export diversification: An empirical analysis in the case of SADC countries. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), 9(7), 130–144. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v9i7.942
Gamariel, G., Bomani, M., Musikavanhu, L., & Juana, J. (2022). Foreign direct investment and export diversification in developing countries. Risk Governance and Control: Financial Markets & Institutions, 12(1), 74–89. https://doi.org/10.22495/rgcv12i1p6
Giri, R., Quayyum, M. S. N., & Yin, R. (2019). Understanding export diversification: Key drivers and policy implications. International Monetary Fund.
Haini, H., Loon, P. W., & Li, P. L. (2023). Can export diversification promote export upgrading? Evidence from an oil-dependent economy. Resources Policy, 80, 103292. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103292
Handoyo, R. D., & Ibrahim, K. H. (2021). Determinants of Export Diversification in Developing Countries. Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, 20(4), 720–731. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.7232/iems.2021.20.4.720
Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehnmann D, F. (2006). What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis. Applied Economics, 38(15), 1825–1838. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 00036840500426983
Jongwanich, J. (2020). Export diversification, margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand. The World Economy, 43(10), 2674–2722. https://doi.org/10.1111/ twec.12921
Lee, D., & Zhang, H. (2022). Export diversification in low-income countries and small states: Do country size and income level matter? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 60, 250–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.11.017
Lugeiyamu, E. (2016). Is export diversification a key force to Africa’s economic growth?: cross-country evidence. Retrieved from https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-30541
Mayer, T., Melitz, M. J., & Ottaviano, G. I. P. (2014). Market size, competition, and the product mix of exporters. American Economic Review, 104(2), 495–536. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104. 2.495
Sarin, V., Mahapatra, S. K., & Sood, N. (2022). Export diversification and economic growth: A review and future research agenda. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(3), e2524. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ pa.2524
Shadab, S., & Tiwari, A. (2021). The nexus between export diversification, imports, capital and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates: An empirical investigation. Cogent Economics & Finance, 9(1), 19143986. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2021.1914396
Siregar, H., & Daryanto, A. (2005). Perkembangan dan diversifikasi ekspor Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis, 2(2), 157–166. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.2.2.157-166
Siswana, S., & Phiri, A. (2021). Is export diversification or export specialization responsible for economic growth in BRICS countries? The International Trade Journal, 35(3), 243–261. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2020.1842823
World Bank. (2023). World Development Indicators Database Report. The World Bank. Available from: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
World Bank. (2023). World Integrated Trade Solution Database Report. The World Bank. Available from: https://wits.worldbank.org/