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Abstract
Weather factors have become a critical climate change issue at global forums because climate change can impact natural and human life, especially economic activities, as demonstrated by one of the examples of economic growth in a country. As a climate-vulnerable country, Indonesia experiences significant fluctuations in weather patterns, impacting key economic sectors, especially agriculture. Utilizing secondary data from 2014 to 2022, the study applies a panel data regression model to examine the relationship between climate and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita growth as a proxy of regional economic growth. The findings revealed that rainfall and average air temperature have a negative sign and significantly affect economic growth, particularly in natural-resource-dependent sectors. The population growth rate also has a negative sign and significant influence on GRDP per capita dynamics, underscoring the need for enhanced economic capacity to match demographic changes. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers to incorporate climate considerations into sustainable economic planning, especially for climate-sensitive sectors.
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References
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- Gatti, N., Baylis, K., & Crost, B. (2021). Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 103(1), 211–231. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajae.12092
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- Sangkhaphan, S., & Shu, Y. (2020). The effect of rainfall on economic growth in Thailand: A blessing for poor provinces. Economies, 8(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8010001
- Sequeira, T. N., Santos, M. S., & Magalhães, M. (2018). Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(23), 22725–22735. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2305-7
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References
Adam, C., & Drakos, P. (2022). Climate change: north and south EU economies—an application of dynamic asymmetric panel data models. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(46), 70573–70590. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22907-y
Adebayo, T. S., Akinsola, G. D., Kirikkaleli, D., Bekun, F. V., Umarbeyli, S., & Osemeahon, O. S. (2021). Economic performance of Indonesia amidst CO2 emissions and agriculture: a time series analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(35), 47942-47956. http://dx.doi. org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-285102/v1
Adeosun, O. T., & Popogbe, O. O. (2021). Population growth and human resource utilization nexus in Nigeria. Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, 3(4), 281-298. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1108/JHASS-06-2020-0088
Alita, D., Putra, A. D., & Darwis, D. (2021). Analysis of classic assumption test and multiple linear regression coefficient test for employee structural office recommendation. IJCCS (Indonesian Journal of Computing and Cybernetics Systems), 15(3), 295-306. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/ ijccs.65586
Arogundade, S., Hassan, A. S., & Mduduzi, B. (2024). Is climate change hindering the economic progress of Nigerian economy? Insights from dynamic models. Heliyon, 10(20), e39288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39288
Aulia, A. F., Sandhu, H., & Millington, A. C. (2020). Quantifying the economic value of ecosystem services in oil palm dominated landscapes in Riau Province in Sumatra, Indonesia. Land, 9(6), 9–22. https://doi.org/10.3390/LAND9060194
BMKG. (2023). Climate Outlook 2023. Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika. Available at https://iklim.bmkg.go.id
BPS. (2024). Produk Domestik Regional Bruto per Kapita Atas Dasar Harga Konstan 2010 Menurut Provinsi. Badan Pusat Statistik. https://www.bps.go.id/id
Chamma, D. D. (2024). Climate change and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: an empirical analysis of aggregate- and sector-level growth. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40847-024-00377-x
Colacito, R., Hoffmann, B., & Phan, T. (2019). Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 51(2–3), 313–368. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/jmcb.12574
Febriandika, N. R., & Rahayu, C. (2021). The Impact of Climate Change on Economic Conditions: Evidence in Indonesia. Jejak, 14(2), 261–271. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v14i2.29920
Febriandika, N., & Rahayu, C. (2021). The Impact of Climate Change on Economic Conditions: Evidence in Indonesia. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 14(2), 261-271. https://doi.org/ 10.15294/jejak.v14i2.29920
Gatti, N., Baylis, K., & Crost, B. (2021). Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 103(1), 211–231. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajae.12092
Greene, W. H. (1990). Econometric Analysis (Sixth Edit). Pearson Education.
Henseler, M., & Schumacher, I. (2019). The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors. Climatic Change, 154(3–4), 417–433. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02441-6
Jain, A., O’Sullivan, R., & Taraz, V. (2020). Temperature and economic activity: evidence from India. Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 9(4), 430–446. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 21606544.2020.1727776
Kalkuhl, M., & Wenz, L. (2020). The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 103(603864), 102360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360
Kara, E., & Diken, A. (2020). Climatic Change: the Effect of Rainfall on Economic Growth. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 11(28), 665–679. https://doi.org/10.21076/ vizyoner.693363
Khurshid, N., Fiaz, A., Khurshid, J., & Ali, K. (2022). Impact of climate change shocks on economic growth: A new insight from non-linear analysis. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10(October), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.1039128
Kolstad, C. D., & Moore, F. C. (2020). Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 14(1), 1–25. https://doi. org/10.1093/reep/rez024
Kurniasih, C. E., . H., Nasir, M., Mahmud, M. S., Rashid, N., Ghazali, P. L., & Afthanorhan, A. (2018). Analysis of the Relationship between World Oil Price and Exchange Rate on Agricultural Commodity Prices in Indonesia. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 8(12), 561–576. https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v8-i12/5055
Meyghani, S., Khodaparast M, M., & Salehnia, N. (2023). Long-term effects of temperature and precipitation on economic growth of selected MENA region countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25, 7325–7343. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02330-6
Olanrewaju, O. (2019). Effect of Rainfall Variations on Economic Growth in Africa. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 10(8), 58–62. https://doi.org/10.7176/JESD
Osman, B. M., Mohamud, M. H., Omar, A. F., Yabarow, A. A., Omar, O. M., Jirow, M. sheikh A., Dahir, A. N., & Nur, A. M. (2025). The impact of climate change on economic growth in Somalia: using random forest and Bayesian approach. Cogent Economics and Finance, 13(1). https://doi. org/10.1080/23322039.2025.2496684
Pretis, F., Schwarz, M., Tang, K., Haustein, K., & Allen, M. R. (2018). Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2119), 20160460. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0460
Saban, A. B., Sahara, & Falatehan, A. F. (2024). Economic Transformation: How Does the Agricultural Sector Performance in Indonesia’s Regional Economic Structure? Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 21(2), 175–190. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v21i2.22744
Sangkhaphan, S., & Shu, Y. (2020). The effect of rainfall on economic growth in Thailand: A blessing for poor provinces. Economies, 8(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8010001
Sequeira, T. N., Santos, M. S., & Magalhães, M. (2018). Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(23), 22725–22735. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-2305-7
Uddin, S. M. N., Islam, A., & Howlader, S. (2024). Exploring the Linkage between Temperature and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: An ARDL Approach. Journal of Environmental Economics and Sustainability, 2(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.47134/jees.v2i1.482
Zhang, X., & Masron, T. A. (2023). Does climate affect regional economic development in China? Cogent Social Sciences, 9(2), 2283918. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2283918
Zhao, Y., & Liu, S. (2023). Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: A Perspective of the Heterogeneous Climate Regions in Africa. Sustainability, 15(9), 7136. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su15097136