Analisis Kesinambungan Fiskal Indonesia Pasca Krisis Ekonomi

Muhammad Basorudin

doi:10.29259/jep.v17i2.9792

Submitted

October 15, 2019

Accepted

December 16, 2019

Published

December 26, 2019

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Abstract

The debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is one of the indicators used to measure fiscal sustainability in Indonesia. From 2010-2017 on a quarterly basis, the debt to GDP ratio of Indonesia contributed to an upward trend. The purpose of this research is to get a general description of the debt ratio to GDP and analyze the factors that affect the ratio of debt to GDP simultaneously and partially to be used as an early warning for the fiscal sustainability of Indonesia. The model used in this research is Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results obtained from this research is the Indonesia’s debt to GDP ratio is influenced by the debt to GDP ratio previous quarter. The influence given to the current quarterly debt ratio in the short run is greater than long run.

Keywords

Debt to GDP ratio economic growth early warning and fiscal sustainability

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How to Cite

Basorudin, M. (2019). Analisis Kesinambungan Fiskal Indonesia Pasca Krisis Ekonomi. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 17(2), 59–70. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v17i2.9792

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References

Alvarado, C. D., Izquierdo, A., & Panizza, U. (2004). Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador. ADB Working Paper (Vol. 511).
Apriyani, R. (2017). Utang Indonesia Membengkak? Ini Penjelasan Sri Mulyani - Diambil dari http://kbr.id/07-2017/utang_indonesia_membengkak_ini_penjelasan_sri_mulya ni/91361.html pada 27 Juli 2017.
Bank Indonesia. (2017). Diambil dari http://www.bi.go.id/en/statistik/utang-luar-negeri/ Default.aspx pada 11 Juli 2018.
Collignon, S. (2012). Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe. International Economic Review, 53(2), 1–41.
Drakes, L., Thomas, C., Craigwell, R., & Greenidge, K. (2012). Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence From the Caribbean. IMF Working Paper, Vol. 12/157
Ehrhart, C., & Llorca, M. (2007). A Global Perspective of Fiscal Sustainability: evidence from a panel of 20 OECD countries. In 11th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (pp. 1–18).
Enders, W. (2015). Applied Econometric Time Series (Fourth). New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic Econometrics. (L. Sutton, Ed.) (Fourth). New York: McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Harahap, S. R. (2013). Deteksi Dini Krisis Nilai Tukar Indonesia : Identifikasi Periode Krisis Tahun 1995 – 2011. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 2(4), 318–328.
Intosai. (2010). Debt Indicators. Intosai Professional Standards Committee. ISSAI 5411.
Kuncoro, H. (2011). Ketangguhan APBN dalam Pembayaran Utang. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, April 2011, 434-454.
Netter, J., Wasserman, W., & Kutner, M. H. (1983). Applied Linear Regression Models.Homewood: Richard D. Iwrin, Inc.
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt. NBER Working Paper No 15639.
Santoso, B. (2006). Studi Kesinambungan Fiskal Indonesia. Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi, I No. 3, 235-258.
Simarmata, D. A. (2007). Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia. MPRA Paper.
Sriyana, J. (2015). Long run fiscal disequilibrium. An indonesian case. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 10(2), 253–261.
Stephanie, R. M. (2015). Analisis Keberlanjutan Fiskal Indonesia Tahun 2000-2012. Bina Ekonomi, 19(1), 1–14.
Wardhono, A., Qori’ah, C. G., & Ayu Wulandari, C. D. (2015). Studi Kesinambungan Fiskal pada Variabel Makro Ekonomi Indonesia : Analisis Var. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 8 No. 2, 113-121.
Waryanto, P. (2015). Relevansi Penerapan Government Finance Statistics (GFS). Jurnal BPPK, 8, 53–75.
World Bank. (2017). International Debt Statistics 2017. Washington: The World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://www.stat.ufl.edu/~winner/tables/DW_05.pdf

References

Alvarado, C. D., Izquierdo, A., & Panizza, U. (2004). Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador. ADB Working Paper (Vol. 511).

Apriyani, R. (2017). Utang Indonesia Membengkak? Ini Penjelasan Sri Mulyani - Diambil dari http://kbr.id/07-2017/utang_indonesia_membengkak_ini_penjelasan_sri_mulya ni/91361.html pada 27 Juli 2017.

Bank Indonesia. (2017). Diambil dari http://www.bi.go.id/en/statistik/utang-luar-negeri/ Default.aspx pada 11 Juli 2018.

Collignon, S. (2012). Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe. International Economic Review, 53(2), 1–41.

Drakes, L., Thomas, C., Craigwell, R., & Greenidge, K. (2012). Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence From the Caribbean. IMF Working Paper, Vol. 12/157

Ehrhart, C., & Llorca, M. (2007). A Global Perspective of Fiscal Sustainability: evidence from a panel of 20 OECD countries. In 11th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance (pp. 1–18).

Enders, W. (2015). Applied Econometric Time Series (Fourth). New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic Econometrics. (L. Sutton, Ed.) (Fourth). New York: McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

Harahap, S. R. (2013). Deteksi Dini Krisis Nilai Tukar Indonesia : Identifikasi Periode Krisis Tahun 1995 – 2011. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 2(4), 318–328.

Intosai. (2010). Debt Indicators. Intosai Professional Standards Committee. ISSAI 5411.

Kuncoro, H. (2011). Ketangguhan APBN dalam Pembayaran Utang. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, April 2011, 434-454.

Netter, J., Wasserman, W., & Kutner, M. H. (1983). Applied Linear Regression Models.Homewood: Richard D. Iwrin, Inc.

Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt. NBER Working Paper No 15639.

Santoso, B. (2006). Studi Kesinambungan Fiskal Indonesia. Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi, I No. 3, 235-258.

Simarmata, D. A. (2007). Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia. MPRA Paper.

Sriyana, J. (2015). Long run fiscal disequilibrium. An indonesian case. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 10(2), 253–261.

Stephanie, R. M. (2015). Analisis Keberlanjutan Fiskal Indonesia Tahun 2000-2012. Bina Ekonomi, 19(1), 1–14.

Wardhono, A., Qori’ah, C. G., & Ayu Wulandari, C. D. (2015). Studi Kesinambungan Fiskal pada Variabel Makro Ekonomi Indonesia : Analisis Var. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 8 No. 2, 113-121.

Waryanto, P. (2015). Relevansi Penerapan Government Finance Statistics (GFS). Jurnal BPPK, 8, 53–75.

World Bank. (2017). International Debt Statistics 2017. Washington: The World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://www.stat.ufl.edu/~winner/tables/DW_05.pdf

Analisis Kesinambungan Fiskal Indonesia Pasca Krisis Ekonomi

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