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Abstract
This study investigates the complex interplay between human development index, foreign direct investment, and investment efficiency in driving economic growth. Utilized time-series data during 2000 to 2022, sourced from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Employing the ARDL model. The findings reveal a strong positive correlation between HDI and economic growth, highlighting the critical role of investments in education, health, and social welfare. While FDI significantly contributes to economic growth through technology transfer and productivity enhancement, the study surprisingly finds limited evidence of a direct link between investment efficiency and economic growth. This suggests that factors such as institutional quality and innovation play a more dominant role. These findings have crucial implications for Indonesia, which faces the challenge of escaping the middle-income trap. Prioritizing human development, attracting high-quality FDI, and fostering a conducive investment climate through institutional reforms are crucial for sustainable and inclusive growth. By investing in human capital, promoting technological innovation, and effectively leveraging FDI, Indonesia can overcome the middle-income trap and achieve long-term economic prosperity.
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References
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- Andriani, D. & Yustini, T. (2021). Anticipating The Demographic Bonus from The Perspective of Human Capital in Indonesia. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science, 10(6), 141-152. https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v10i6.1377
- Carbonel, J. B., & Werner, R, A. (2018). Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Economic Growth? A New Empirical Approach Applied to Spain. Economic Geography, 94(08), 425-456. https://doi. org/10.1080/00130095.2017.1393312
- Dasic, B., Devic, Z., Denic, N., Zlatkovic, D., Ilic, I. D., Cao, Y., Jermsittiparsert, K., & Le, H. Van. (2020). Human Development Index In A Context Of Human Development. Review On the Western Balkans Countries. Brain and Behavior, 10(9), e01755. https://doi.org/10.1002/brb3.1755
- Dinh, T. T. H., Vo, D. H., The Vo, A., & Nguyen, T. C. (2019). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in the short run and long run: Empirical evidence from developing countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(4), 176. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12040176
- Eichengreen, B., Donghyun, P., & Kwanho S. (2014). Growth Slowdowns Redux. Japan and the World Economy, 32, 65–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2014.07.003
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- Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2020). China in the middle-income trap?. China Economic Review, 60, 101264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2019.01.003
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- Le, H. T. P., Pham, H., Do, N. T. T., & Duong, K. D. (2024). Foreign Direct Investment, Total Factor Productivity, and Economic Growth: Evidence in Middle Income Countries. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications. 11, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03462-y
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- Sarwar, A., Khan, M. A., Sarwar, Z., & Khan, W. (2021). Financial development, human capital and its impact on economic growth of emerging countries. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 5(1), 86-100. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEB-06-2020-0015
- Shinta, I. C., Solikin, A. (2022). The Influence of Capital Efficiency and Education Spending on Indonesia’s Economic Growth. International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research. 6(2), 817-830.
- Taguchi, H., & Lowhachai, S. (2014). A Revisit to the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio: The Case of Asian Economies and Thailand. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies 7(1), 35–54. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEPEE.2014.059891.
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References
Aiyar, S., Duval, R., Puy, D., Wu, Y., & Zhang, L. (2018). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. Japan and the World Economy, 48(71), 22–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2018. 07.001
Amin, S. A., Samia, B. I., & Khan, F. (2024). Does Capital Efficiiency Influence Economic Growth in Bangladesh? Application of the Harrod-Domar Model. Journal of Economics, Finance, and Administrative Science, 29(58), 326-345. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-06-2021-0096
Andriani, D. & Yustini, T. (2021). Anticipating The Demographic Bonus from The Perspective of Human Capital in Indonesia. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science, 10(6), 141-152. https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v10i6.1377
Carbonel, J. B., & Werner, R, A. (2018). Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Economic Growth? A New Empirical Approach Applied to Spain. Economic Geography, 94(08), 425-456. https://doi. org/10.1080/00130095.2017.1393312
Dasic, B., Devic, Z., Denic, N., Zlatkovic, D., Ilic, I. D., Cao, Y., Jermsittiparsert, K., & Le, H. Van. (2020). Human Development Index In A Context Of Human Development. Review On the Western Balkans Countries. Brain and Behavior, 10(9), e01755. https://doi.org/10.1002/brb3.1755
Dinh, T. T. H., Vo, D. H., The Vo, A., & Nguyen, T. C. (2019). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in the short run and long run: Empirical evidence from developing countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(4), 176. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12040176
Eichengreen, B., Donghyun, P., & Kwanho S. (2014). Growth Slowdowns Redux. Japan and the World Economy, 32, 65–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2014.07.003
Elistia & Syahzuni, B., A. (2018). The Correlation of The Human Development Index (HDI) towards Economics Growth (GDP Per Capita) in 10 ASEAN Member Countries. Journal of Humanities and Social Studies, 2(2), 40-46. https://doi.org/10.33751/jhss.v2i2.949
Gill, I., Kharas,H., and Deepak B. (2007). An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-6747-6
Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2020). China in the middle-income trap?. China Economic Review, 60, 101264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2019.01.003
Hansen, B. (2022). Econometrics. Princeton University Press.
Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehnmann D, F. (2006). What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis. Applied economics, 38(15), 1825-1838. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368 40500426983
Irawati, H. M., & Setiawan, R. (2022). Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Kalimantan Utara Tahun 2017-2021. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan. 1(1), 16-24.
Le, H. T. P., Pham, H., Do, N. T. T., & Duong, K. D. (2024). Foreign Direct Investment, Total Factor Productivity, and Economic Growth: Evidence in Middle Income Countries. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications. 11, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-03462-y
Mahembe, E. & Odhiambo, N. M. (2014). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Framework. Journal of Governance and Regulation. 3(2), 63-70. https://doi.org/10. 22495/jgr_v3_i2_p6
Marissa, F., Yulianita, A., & Fitriyah, A. (2019). The Effect of Investment Efficiency toward Economic Growth in South Sumatera and Jambi Province. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan. 17(2). 71-80. https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v17i2.9399
Maryanti, S., Widayat, P., & Lubis, N. (2023). Economic transformation to get out of the middle income trap condition to reach Indonesia Gold 2045. ADPEBI International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(1), 63-78. https://doi.org/10.54099/aijbs.v3i1.356
Mazllami, J. (2021). The Invesments Efficiency Toward Economic Growth: ICOR of the Republic of Croatia and Slovenia – Comparative Analysis. Journal of Economic and Social Studies, 8(1), 0-14. https://doi.org/10.14706/jecoss21815
Mazllami, J., & Aziri, B. (2019). Investments efficiency and economic growth: a comparative analysis of North Macedonia and Albania. Knowledge International Journal, 31(5), 1381-1389. DOI:https://doi.org/10.35120/kij31051381m
Nababan, T. S., Panjaitan, R., Panjaitan, F., Napitupulu, S. (2024). Investigating The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Development Index: are They Simultaneously Related?. Sultanist: Jurnal Manajemen dan Keuangan, 12(2), 319-330.
Nainggolan, L. E., Lie, D., Siregar, R. T., Nainggolan, N. T. (2022). Relationship Between Human Development Index and Economic Growth in Indonesia Using Simultaneous Model. Journal of Positive Scholl Psychology, 6(6), 695-706.
Onho, K. (2009). Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam. ASEAN Economic Bulletin. 26(1), 25-43. https://doi.org/10.1353/ase.0.0035
Opoku, E. E. O., Acheampong, A. O., Dogah, K. E., & Koomson, I. (2024). Energy innovation investment and renewable energy in OECD countries. Energy Strategy Reviews, 54, 101462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101462
Pegkas, P. (2015). The impact of FDI on economic growth in Eurozone countries. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(2), 124-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2015.05.001
Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium (Chapter 11). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011
Ridha, M. R., & Budi, N. (2020). The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment, Human Development and Macroeconomics Condition on Economic Growth: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Indonesian Applied Economics 8(2), 46-54. https://doi.org/10.21776/ub.jiae.2020.008.02.5
Rivera, M. A. (2017). The synergies between human development, economic growth, and tourism within a developing country: An empirical model for Ecuador. Journal of destination marketing & management, 6(3), 221-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2016.04.002
Sarwar, A., Khan, M. A., Sarwar, Z., & Khan, W. (2021). Financial development, human capital and its impact on economic growth of emerging countries. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 5(1), 86-100. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEB-06-2020-0015
Shinta, I. C., Solikin, A. (2022). The Influence of Capital Efficiency and Education Spending on Indonesia’s Economic Growth. International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research. 6(2), 817-830.
Taguchi, H., & Lowhachai, S. (2014). A Revisit to the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio: The Case of Asian Economies and Thailand. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies 7(1), 35–54. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEPEE.2014.059891.
World Bank. (2023). Indonesia Overview: Development news, research data. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/overview